The Morning Call
10/20/23
The
Market
Technical
Thursday in the
charts.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/yields-soar-oil-roars-stocks-plunge-rollercoaster-session
Note: the S&P
finished below that lower boundary of its former short term uptrend. The next resistance level to pay attention to
is in the 4200 area---the 200 DMA is ~4231 and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level
is ~4200. If that area cracks, the next
visible major stop is ~3817. I am not
predicting that but (1) the index has made three consecutive lower highs and
(2) it is bothersome that the long Treasury continued its free fall yesterday
in the face of some dovish comments from Powell. That suggests that Fed policy is being
replaced as the chief factor in market valuation by (1) war in the Middle East,
(2) political disfunction in DC or (3) disastrously irresponsible fiscal policy
or some combination of the above. I don’t
think it time to run for the hills but it is a time for patience at least until
we know how stocks handle the ~4200 level.
Another
explanation for the stock/bond sell off.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/china-liquidated-most-us-securities-four-years-prop-plunging-yuan
Volatility in oil
and gold.
https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/gold-and-oil-volatility-money
Fear
is here. Will there be panic?
https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/fear-here-will-there-be-panic
Fundamental
Headlines
The
Economy
US
September existing
home sales declined 2.0% versus forecasts of down 3.5%.
https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2023/10/nar-existing-home-sales-decreased-to_19.html
Thirty year
mortgage rates just hit 8%.
The September leading
economic index was down 0.7% versus predictions of -0.4%.
International
September German PPI was down 0.2% versus
estimates of +0.4%.
September UK
retail sales fell 0.9% versus expectations of -0.2%; ex fuel, they were -1.0%
versus -0.4%.
Other
The
Fed
Powell’s speech weighed to the dovish side.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/watch-live-will-fed-chair-powell-drop-hawkish-tape-bomb
Inflation
Health inflation’s big hike this year.
Geopolitics
Israel, Iran and war in the Middle East.
https://warontherocks.com/2023/10/iran-israel-and-war-in-the-middle-east/
Oil price underestimates the risk of a Middle
East blowup.
https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/oil-markets-underestimating-risk-middle-east-blowout
US embassy in
Lebanon tells Americans to ‘get out while you still can’.
China
China crisis risk.
China’s Q3 GDP growth shows recovery is
gaining traction.
Of course, as I have said many times, they
lie.
https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/albert-edwards-explains-why-chinas-strong-gdp-data-was-bold-lie
Civil
Strife
At last, a counterattack on the ‘woke’
censorship.
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/dismantle-censorship-industrial-complex-westminster-declaration
The
coronavirus
Lessons from the coronavirus pandemic.
https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2023/10/lessons-from-20-20-hindsight-view-of.html
The
Bond Market
Where are the defaults?
https://mailchi.mp/verdadcap/where-are-all-the-defaults?e=b838bc224f
The price of money is going up.
\
Bottom line
What is driving
sentiment (must read).
https://ritholtz.com/2023/10/driving-sentiment/
The pain trade
into year end.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/heres-pain-trade-year-end-nomura-unravels-bond-bullbear-battle
How to invest in
times of war.
https://ofdollarsanddata.com/how-to-invest-during-times-of-war/
The trend is your
friend.
https://investorplace.com/smartmoney/2023/10/now-more-than-ever-the-trend-is-your-friend/
Measuring the
current drawdown.
https://www.capitalspectator.com/us-stock-markets-current-drawdown-is-9th-longest-since-1950/
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:JNJ) declares $1.19/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous
What
I am reading today
Friday
morning humor.
The electorate
must have the right to say ‘no’.
https://www.adamsmith.org/blog/its-a-very-weird-infrastructure-report-isnt-it
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