The Morning Call--The consumer keeps splurging

The Morning Call

 

 

10/18/23

 

The Market

         

    Technical

                   

            Tuesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/seasonally-adjusted-good-news-batters-bonds-biden-bruises-big-tech

 

            Three more charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/3-charts-we-are-watching-goldman-says-not-out-woods

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

Weekly mortgage applications fell 6.9% while purchase applications were down 5.6%.

 

                          Month to date retail chain store sales grew faster than in the prior week.

 

September industrial production was up 0.3% versus estimates of 0%; capacity utilization was 79.7% versus 79.6%.

   https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2023/10/17/the-big-four-economic-indicators-industrial-production-september-2023

 

September housing starts rose 7.0% versus expectations of +9.1%; building permits declined 4.4% versus -5.2%.

 

The October housing index came in at 40 versus projections of 44.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2023/10/17/housing-market-index-builder-confidence-nahb-mortgage-rates-impact

                                                                       

                        International

 

August EU YoY construction output declined 0.1% versus consensus of +1.2%; September CPI was +0.3%, in line.

 

September UK CPI was +0.5%, in line; core CPI was +0.5%, also in line.

 

                        Other

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              Why the budget deficit suddenly matters.

              https://www.morningstar.com/markets/markets-brief-why-budget-deficit-suddenly-matters

 

            Inflation

 

              The Campbell’s tomato soup indicator.

              https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2023/10/campbells-tomato-soup-prices.html

 

              Top economists agree on ‘higher for longer’.

              https://www.cnbc.com/2023/10/17/top-economists-unanimous-on-higher-for-longer-rates-as-inflation-threats-linger.html

 

            Recession

 

              Update on the big four recession indicators.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2023/10/17/the-big-four-economic-indicators-industrial-production-september-2023

 

                          The US consumer keeps splurging.

              https://www.wsj.com/economy/consumers/us-economy-retail-sales-september-2023-5982a6f?mod=economy_lead_story

 

                           Survey shows consumers expect to spend 14% more this holiday shopping season.

              https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-10-17/holiday-spending-to-grow-14-this-year-deloitte-survey-shows?srnd=premium&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

                        China is not the only country whose property development industry is in trouble.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/end-free-money-plunges-german-construction-industry-crisis

                                   

 

            Civil Strife

 

              The deep state sends a warning.

              https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2023/10/deep-state-throat-sends-a-warning.php

 

                Geopolitics

 

              The US buildup in the Middle East.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/tracking-bidens-significant-military-build-near-israel-whats-it-really

 

   More than just an Israel Hamas fight?

  https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/we-are-building-something-far-more-substantial-any-previous-israel-hamas-fight

 

                China

 

              IMF warns China of Japanization risk.

              https://www.investing.com/news/economy/imf-warning-on-china-puts-japanization-risk-in-spotlight-3199045

 

              Country Garden, Evergrande set up two tense weeks for creditors.

             https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-10-17/country-garden-evergrande-set-up-two-tense-weeks-for-creditors?srnd=premium&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

            The Bond Market

 

              The US bond market is losing its strategic footing.

              https://www.ft.com/content/40d9f352-82ed-4e4d-a53b-5f9404613d4a

               

             Foreign central banks dump Treasuries for the first time since January.

             https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/catalyst-soaring-yields-foreign-central-banks-dump-us-treasuries-first-time-six-months

 

     Bottom line

 

            Imagining the future.

            https://alhambrapartners.com/2023/10/15/weekly-market-pulse-prophets-of-doom/

 

            This time is not different.

            Consequences Are Always Unintended - RIA (realinvestmentadvice.com)

 

            The S&P mostly unswayed by geopolitics.

            https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2023/10/s-500-mostly-unswayed-by-geopolitics.html

 

Earnings season off to a strong start.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/earnings-season-off-to-strong-start-despite-uncertain-macro-environment-ahead-202508838.html

 

            Bond valuations are cheap.

            https://www.capitalspectator.com/10-year-us-treasury-yield-fair-value-estimate-17-october-2023/

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

Sherwin Williams (NYSE:SHW) declares $0.605/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.

What I am reading today

 

Wednesday morning humor.

https://babylonbee.com/news/texans-put-up-billboards-in-california-telling-everyone-how-terrible-texas-is-and-how-you-probably-shouldnt-move-there

 

            The nanny state.

            https://www.adamsmith.org/blog/harry-dimbleby-meets-the-lucas-critique

 

 

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