The Morning Call--Bond bottom?

The Morning Call

 

10/10/23

 

The Market

         

    Technical

                

            Monday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stocks-bonds-gold-and-oil-soar-dovish-fed-comments-trample-israel-war-fears

                            

Note: The S&P continued its rally, leaving open the question as whether last week’s breach of the lower boundary of its short term uptrend was a false flag.  To feel comfortable making that call, I need to see positive pin action from the long Treasury. 

 

            Three more charts to watch.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/3-charts-we-are-watching-buy-or-buy

 

Seasonality starts now.

https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/seasonality-starts-now

 

            Did something break last week?

            Liquidation Event? Did Something Break Early In The Week? - RIA (realinvestmentadvice.com)

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

The September small business optimism index came in at 90.8 versus consensus of 91.4.          

 

                        International

 

                        Other

              

            The Fed

 

               The end of free money.

               https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-10-08/bond-market-pain-is-a-sign-of-interest-rates-returning-to-normal?sref=loFkkPMQ

 

               Fed’s presidents think that there is no need for further rate hikes.

               https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/feds-logan-joins-daly-saying-surge-yields-means-no-need-further-rate-hikes

 

            Recession

 

              The bright side of higher rates.

              https://www.tker.co/p/higher-interest-rates-interest-income

 

            Government Shutdown

 

              The case for a government shutdown being a good thing.

              https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2023/10/09/government-shutdown-averted-lance-roberts

 

            Geopolitics

 

              Ten takeaways from Hamas surprise attack on Israel.

              https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2023/10/the-top-ten-takeaways-from-hamas-sneak-attack-on-israel.html

 

  New global oil market order.

  https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/new-global-oil-market-order-hangs-balance-after-hamas-attacks-israel

 

China

 

  China is considering new stimulus measures.

  https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/china-considers-stimulus-higher-deficit-spending-counter-property-bust

 

The Bond Market

 

  Wall Street isn’t sure that it can handle the continuing onslaught of Treasuries.

  https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/government-spending-hurting-bond-portfolio-8a063f39?mod=hp_lead_pos1&utm_campaign=What%20I%20Am%20Reading&utm_medium=email&_hsmi=277480900&_hsenc=p2ANqtz--Auk3O0w3eMFBXjNPOR2JRH-WR5TF-Om7WUDfPgtafEXE4OZvxD6GkyNQcnKu5DKdFDxZSxczVtBwD1P6GdtN2FnpbNA&utm_content=277480900&utm_source=hs_email

 

 

  Majority thinks that the next move in rates is lower.

  https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/vast-majority-wall-street-think-next-100bps-move-10y-yields-lower

 

                  Wall Street pros nervous about yield-led global ‘accident’.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/deutsche-bank-clients-nervous-about-yield-led-global-accidents

 

                  Bond bottom.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/bond-bottom-0

 

    Bottom line

 

            Warning signs of a Market crash.

            https://www.morningstar.com/portfolios/how-likely-are-market-crashes

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

 

What I am reading today

 

            The alpha of ugliness.

            https://www.ft.com/content/6e299bef-a475-4f6b-9430-d4a8c9772d44

 

 

A dream is a goal with a deadline.

https://traderfeed.blogspot.com/2023/10/how-to-achieve-goals-you-set.html

 

            What led to Tupac’s murder.

            https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/05/arts/music/tupac-murder-testimony-keffe-d.html

 

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