The Morning Call
8/31/23
The
Market
Technical
Wednesday in the
charts.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stocks-gold-gain-dollar-pain-soft-landing-narrative-implodes
Note: the S&P continued
its climb, voiding that very short term downtrend, resetting its 50 DMA from
resistance to support and opening the way for a run higher. There is mixed technical opinion (see below)
on that point. And on the fundamental
side, stocks moving up on lousy economic data begs the question, has a
recession already been discounted? I
know that I said that I would be nibbling at equities if the S&P pushed
back above its 50 DMA. But with stocks
already handsomely priced, September being a notoriously bad month for the
Market and the sudden rush of poor economic data, I am too chicken to follow my
own advice. I am adding to our long Treasury position.
Will September
kill the Market’s bullishness? (Note:
the article was clearly written before S&P surge above its 50 DMA on
Tuesday. However, the remainder of the
article is still a reminder that September can be rough on your portfolio)
https://investorplace.com/2023/08/will-september-kill-the-market-bullishness/
Bad is good,
again.
Counterpoint.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bad-news-good-news-juice-stocks-might-soon-run-out
Bonds to buy.
https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/big-bond-buy-0
Fundamental
Headlines
The
Economy
US
July pending home sales rose 0.9% versus
estimates of -0.6%.
July personal income
was up 0.2% versus predictions of +0.3%; July personal spending was up 0.8%
versus +0.7%.
The July PCE price
indicator came in at +0.2%, in line.
August initial
jobless claims totaled 228,000 versus consensus of 235,000.
International
July preliminary
Japanese industrial production was down 2.0% versus forecasts of down 1.4%;
July retail sales were up 2.1% versus -0.1%; July YoY housing starts were off
6.7% versus -0.8%; July YoY construction orders were up 8.7% versus +2.1%.
July German retail
sales fell 0.8% versus projections of +0.3%; the August unemployment rate was
5.7%, in line.
The July EU
unemployment rate was 6.4%, in line; August flash CPI was +0.6% versus +0.3%.
The August Chinese
manufacturing PMI was 49.7 versus expectations of 49.5; the August nonmanufacturing
PMI was 51.0 versus 51.1.
Other
Recession
An early warning?
https://www.capitalspectator.com/is-us-economic-resilience-peaking/
EV inventories piling up.
Investor home purchases crashing.
China
China’s unsustainable, unbalanced growth
model.
China attempts to
stabilize finances of troubled shadow banks.
How do we manage China’s decline?
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/29/opinion/china-economy-decline.html
Here is something new and different: an
analysis of the Chinese economy that isn’t totally downbeat.
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2023/08/30/china-contagion-contained
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
What
I am reading today
The
last time (must read)
https://www.raptitude.com/2021/09/the-last-time-always-happens-now/
The
relentless rise of stablecoins.
https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2023/08/the-relentless-rise-of-stablecoins.html
Win big, lose
big---the range of outcomes.
https://www.mr-stingy.com/range-of-outcomes/
Visit Investing
for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home)
to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber
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