The Morning Call--Stimulus is never just temporary

The Morning Call

 

8/15/23

 

                                                                                     

    Technical

                

            Monday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/big-tech-bounces-bonds-bitcoin-black-gold-struggle-rate-hike-odds-rise

 

            Technical and sentiment indicators suggest a weaker Market.

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2023/08/14/market-cycle-lows-equities-bull-market-lance-roberts

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

July retail sales were up 0.7% versus estimates of +0.4%; ex autos, they were up 1.0% versus +0.4%.

https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/us-retail-sales-soared-july-non-store-retailers-spending-spiked

 

The August NY Fed manufacturing index was -19 versus -1.

 

International

                             

  Q2 Japanese GDP growth was +1.5% versus predictions of +0.8%; Q2 capital expenditures were 0.0% versus +0.4%; Q2 private consumption was -0.5% versus +0.1%; June industrial production was up 2.4% versus +2.0%.

 

 The June UK unemployment rate was 4.2% versus consensus of 4.0%; June average earnings were up 8.2% versus +7.3%. 

 

 July YoY Chinese industrial production was up 3.7% versus expectations of +4.4%; July YoY retail sales were up 2.4% versus +4.5%.

 

 The July EU economic sentiment index was -5.5 versus projections of -14.0.

 

July German PPI fell 0.2% versus estimates of -0.3%; the July economic sentiment index was -5.5 versus -14.0; the July current conditions index was -71.3 versus -63.0.

 

                        Other

 

The Fed

 

  The Fed is guessing, like everybody ese.

  https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-08-13/fed-will-need-to-wait-until-2024-to-see-if-us-recession-can-be-avoided?srnd=premium&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

Fiscal Policy

 

 The breathtaking scale of the student loan forgiveness program.

  https://www.aei.org/education/the-breathtaking-scale-of-forgiven-student-loan-debt/

 

  Stimulus is never just temporary.

  https://andrewbatson.com/2023/08/08/stimulus-is-never-just-temporary/

 

Inflation

 

  The latest from my favorite optimist.  (That doesn’t mean that he is right)

  http://scottgrannis.blogspot.com/2023/08/a-look-inside-inflation-numbers-says.html

 

            Recession

 

              China’s weak economy is hurting corporate America.

              https://www.wsj.com/articles/chinas-worsening-economy-is-hurting-corporate-america-a3657373?mod=business_lead_pos1

 

              Higher yields put a stranglehold on consumption.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/higher-yields-putting-stranglehold-consumption

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

Home Depot press release (NYSE:HD): Q2 GAAP EPS of $4.65 beats by $0.20.

Revenue of $42.92B (-2.0% Y/Y) beats by $690M.

 

3M (NYSE:MMM) declares $1.50/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.

 

What I am reading today

 

           

 

 

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