The Morning Call---The problem with the bond market's return to normalcy

 

The Morning Call

 

8/18/23

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Thursday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bonds-stocks-bitcoin-bullion-battered-yuan-yield-curve-rally

 

Cash is not trash.

https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/5-charts-we-are-watching-cash-not-trash

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

                          The July leading economic indicators were down 0.4%, in line.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2023/08/17/leading-economic-index-conference-board-continues-decline-uncertainty-grows

 

                        International

 

June EU YoY construction output was down 0.3% versus estimates of +0.9%; July CPI was -0.1%, in line.

 

                          July Japanese CPI was +0.4% versus consensus of +0.3%.

 

July UK retail sales were down 1.2% versus predictions of -0.5%; ex fuel, they were down 1.4% versus -0.5%.

 

                        Other

 

            Inflation

 

              The impact of energy prices on inflation in the US and EU.

              https://econbrowser.com/archives/2023/08/guest-contributions-energy-shocks-and-core-inflation-in-the-us-and-in-the-euro-area-this-time-is-different

 

            Recession

 

              Consumer credit in seven charts.

              https://www.wsj.com/personal-finance/is-it-time-to-worry-about-consumer-debt-what-is-going-on-in-seven-charts-d545f171

 

              The recession risk for Q3 continues to fade.

              https://www.capitalspectator.com/us-recession-risk-for-q3-continues-to-fade/

 

     Bottom line

 

            The problem with the bond market’s return to normalcy.

            https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/investors-need-to-worry-about-the-bond-markets-return-to-normality-843549b7

              

           Global yields reach 15 year high.

           https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-08-17/global-yields-march-to-15-year-highs-even-as-investors-pile-in?srnd=premium&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

Home Depot (NYSE:HD) declares $2.09/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.

 

What I am reading today

 

           

                        One man’s take on ‘Rich men north of Richmond’.

            https://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2023/08/17/let_me_help_you_understand_rich_men_north_of_richmond_973535.html

 

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