The Morning Call---Cue the September effect

 

The Morning Call

 

8/8/23

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Monday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stocks-gold-down-yield-curve-steepens-further

 

            Bullish measures are getting really bullish.

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2023/08/07/bullish-measures-equities-bullish-lance-roberts

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

                        

The July small business optimism index was reported at 91.9   versus forecasts of 90.6.

 

                        International

 

June Japanese household spending was up 0.9% versus consensus of +0.3%; June YoY average earnings were up 2.3% versus +1.6%.

 

July German CPI was +0.3%, in line.

                          

The July Chinese trade balance was $80.6 billion versus projections of $70.6 billion.

 

                        Other

 

            The Fed

 

              How long will interest rates stay high?

              https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/07/business/economy/interest-rates-lower-when.html

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              Why Fitch was right.

              https://johnhcochrane.blogspot.com/2023/08/fitch-is-right.html

 

            Inflation

 

              Home prices increased in June.

              https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2023/08/black-knight-mortgage-monitor-black.html

 

              Wholesale used car prices went down in July.

              https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2023/08/wholesale-used-car-prices-decreased-16.html

 

            Recession

 

              JP Morgan backs off recession call.

  https://www.cnbc.com/2023/08/04/jpmorgan-backs-off-recession-call-even-with-very-elevated-risks.html?utm_campaign=What%20I%20Am%20Reading&utm_medium=email&_hsmi=269110281&_hsenc=p2ANqtz--oyVQQ-7m4JJlERw0CSZqr9rpSbHksvfER0SkjYszL2o72EWl8HyX0dGUO0yHfjYZpVCRKp-PVnzS92MKurht7qXjCrw&utm_content=269110281&utm_source=hs_email

 

               

                Small business boom is fueling the US economy.

                https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-08-03/how-the-pandemic-small-business-boom-is-fueling-the-us-economy?sref=loFkkPMQ

 

                The US housing drought is ending.

                https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2023-08-03/home-sales-the-us-housing-drought-is-nearing-its-end?sref=loFkkPMQ

 

               Consumer credit card debt drops dramatically.

               https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/consumers-finally-crack-shocking-drop-june-credit-card-debt-marks-end-spending-binge

 

   China facing new debt crisis.

   https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/china-facing-new-debt-crisis-record-number-lgfvs-miss-commercial-paper-debt-payments

 

     Bottom line

 

            Last week’s pin action was a warning to investors.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/global-stocks-markets-dow-news-08-04-2023-82a0dbc9?mod=markets_lead_pos1&utm_campaign=What%20I%20Am%20Reading&utm_medium=email&_hsmi=269110281&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-_8XyefvtRSj_OD0u8CyoE8y4wFVnWXa5qpW1YbB5wMVzzcvkQayBgHeGj0IkGos5EPatRtPSSiN3XpUfVkkgJ4Jpulww&utm_content=269110281&utm_source=hs_email

 

            Cue the September effect.

 https://www.wsj.com/articles/stocks-have-had-a-great-year-cue-the-september-effect-fa922be9?mod=markets_lead_pos4&utm_campaign=What%20I%20Am%20Reading&utm_medium=email&_hsmi=269110281&_hsenc=p2ANqtz--wlxAzC-h7t0PHWE0UQnjNxtDxzTwbyDrQaMUzdvrEAqOP5dmhe-9ypgFc33CWs4eDUZb5_zgiP45L77-Os2_tSokQvg&utm_content=269110281&utm_source=hs_email              

 

 

            Update on Buffett indicator.

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2023/08/02/buffett-valuation-indicator-july-2023-update

 

                A perspective on secular bull and bear markets.

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2023/08/03/a-perspective-on-secular-bull-and-bear-markets

 

            Be wary of applying Shiller’s CAPE to individual stocks.

            https://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2023/08/07/be_wary_of_applying_shillers_cape_to_individual_stocks_970886.html

 

            US stocks will underperform global stocks over the next decade.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/us-stocks-will-underperform-global-equities-over-next-decade

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

UPS press release (NYSE:UPS): Q2 Non-GAAP EPS of $2.54 beats by $0.04.

Revenue of $22.1B (-10.9% Y/Y) misses by $1.02B.

 

What I am reading today

 

            Quote of the day.

            https://cafehayek.com/2023/08/quotation-of-the-day-4350.html

 

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