The Morning Call---Stocks don't like August

 

The Morning Call

 

8/3/23

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Wednesday in the charts.

                https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/banks-bonds-big-tech-black-gold-bullion-battered-dollar-disregards-downgrade

 

            Stocks don’t like August.

            https://www.carsongroup.com/insights/blog/stocks-dont-like-august-now-what/

                   

            Rolling over?

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/beyond-downgrade

 

No panic---yet.

https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/no-panic-here-yet

 

            Pay attention to the dollar.

            https://allstarcharts.com/the-dollar-slows-its-roll/

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

                        International

 

The June German trade balance was E18.7 billion versus consensus of E15.0 billion; the July services PMI was 52.3 versus 52.0; the July composite PMI was 48.5 versus 48.3.

 

June EU PPI was down 0.4% versus predictions of down 0.2%; the July services PMI was 50.9 versus 51.1; the July composite PMI was 48.6 versus 48.9.

 

The July UK services PMI was 51.5, in line; the July composite PMI was 50.8 versus 50.7.

 

                        Other

              

               The Fed

 

                 The Bank of England raises rates 25bp.

                 https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/boe-hikes-25bps-three-way-split-keeps-forward-guidance-more-hikes-if-required

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

Here is a more generous take than my own of the Fitch downgrade of US debt.  But author’s next to the last paragraph makes my point even if she doesn’t think it that big a deal at the moment.

              https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2023/08/the-bizarre-and-widely-disparaged-fitch-downgrade-of-us-government-debt-to-aa.html

     

  This is a little bit more to my way of thinking.

  https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/you-dont-need-ratings-agency-tell-you-when-its-raining

 

Recession

 

  BofA joins Fed in reversing recession call.

  https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-08-02/bofa-joins-fed-in-reversing-recession-call-amid-growing-optimism?srnd=premium&utm_campaign=What%20I%20Am%20Reading&utm_medium=email&_hsmi=268741824&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-_pCFhp2_qUI3wwWogrIdP9_fCRgQLCU4wQ0rGUSGdsk230UZsb2zs1oYRlZvbfyShUjt83K9KHRJSI4stC-UjbrR0H7w&utm_content=268741824&utm_source=hs_email&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

 

 

 

  Global manufacturing downturn continues in July.

  https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/4c472ee8100142509dabf9b27df5074c

 

  Heavy truck sales hit record high.

  https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2023/08/heavy-truck-sales-hit-new-record-high.html

 

Geopolitics

 

  China’s outlook improving.

  https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2023/08/02/coming-collapse-of-china

 

     Bottom line

 

            July dividends by the numbers.

            https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2023/08/dividends-by-numbers-in-july-2023.html

 

            Yields surge after Treasury raises auction sizes.

             https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/yields-surge-after-treasury-boosts-auction-sizes-more-expected-sees-debt-issuance-tsunami

 

            Stocks versus bonds: allocating for the next ten years.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stocks-versus-bonds-allocating-next-ten-years

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

Qualcomm press release (NASDAQ:QCOM): Q3 Non-GAAP EPS of $1.87 beats by $0.06.

Revenue of $8.44B (-22.7% Y/Y) misses by $70M.

                

What I am reading today

 

           

 

 

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