The Morning Call
8/30/23
The
Market
Technical
Tuesday in the
charts.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/markets-jolted
Note: the S&P exploded
higher challenging that very short-term downtrend and its 50 DMA. If it closes there today, that suggests a push
higher, quite possibly to its all-time high (~4818). In the meantime, it should find some
resistance at the upper boundary of its short-term uptrend (~4745); but even
that would give the S&P a lot of room to run.
Tuesday’s
technical advice from Lance Roberts.
10
Best Days - A Meme For Every Bull Market - RIA (realinvestmentadvice.com)
The bond market is
not pointing to a major sell-off.
https://allstarcharts.com/no-defense-at-all/
Fundamental
Headlines
The
Economy
US
Weekly mortgage
applications were up 2.3% while purchase applications were up 2.0%.
Month to date
retail chain store sales grew more rapidly than in the prior week.
https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2023/08/less-than-useful-data-weekly-chain.html
The June Case
Shiller home price index rose 0.9% versus expectations of up 0.6%.
Q2 2nd
estimate GDP growth was +2.1% versus predictions of +2.4%; the Q2 price index
was +2.0% versus +2.2%; Q2 corporate profits were +1.6% versus -5.9%.
July job openings
(JOLTS) totaled 8.827 million versus projections of 9.465 million.
The July trade balance
was -$91.1 billion versus forecasts of -$94.0 billion.
The August
consumer confidence index came in at 106.1 versus estimates of 116.0.
The August ADP private payroll reports showed
job increases of 177,000 versus consensus of 195,000.
International
August Japanese
consumer confidence was reported at 36.2 versus expectations of 37.5.
The August EU
economic sentiment index was 93.3 versus predictions of 93.7; the August
industrial sentiment index was -10.3 versus -9.9; the August services sentiment
index was 3.9 versus 4.2; the August consumer confidence index was -16, in
line.
August German CPI was +0.3%, in line.
Other
The
Fed
The Fed doesn’t have a clue.
https://alhambrapartners.com/2023/08/27/weekly-market-pulse-the-fault-is-not-in-r-star/
Recession
Credit is least priced for recession.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/credit-least-priced-recession
China
China’s economy: pep talks at the top, gloom
on the ground.
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/29/world/asia/china-economic-gloom.html
Is China’s century already over?
https://issuesinsights.com/2023/08/25/the-china-century-is-over/
The rising danger of a falling China.
https://danieldrezner.substack.com/p/the-rising-dangers-of-a-falling-china
China
and US agree to take steps to ease trade tensions.
Geopolitics
The
shifting dynamics of the Ukraine conflict.
Bottom line.
Time to manage expectations down for the
equity risk premium.
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
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I am reading today
How
to be lucky.
https://sapientcapital.com/insights/how-to-be-lucky/
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