The Morning Call--Is the sell-off over?

 

The Morning Call

 

8/24/23

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Wednesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bonds-bitcoin-big-tech-bullion-soar-bad-news-good-news-again

 

            Technical indicators suggest that the sell-off is over.

            https://investorplace.com/hypergrowthinvesting/2023/08/stock-indicators-strongly-suggest-stocks-are-about-to-soar/

 

            Four reasons bond yields are rising.

            https://www.morningstar.com/markets/4-reasons-bond-yields-are-rising

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

                          Weekly jobless claims totaled 230,000 versus expectations of 240,000.

 

July durable goods orders fell 5.2% versus projections of -4.0%; ex transportation, there were up 0.5% versus +0.2%.

 

The July Chicago national activity index came in at .12 versus consensus of -.4.

 

                          July new home sales rose 4.4% versus estimates of -1.6%.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2023/08/23/new-home-sales-rebound-in-july

 

The August flash manufacturing PMI was 47.0 versus predictions of 49.3; the flash services PMI was 51.0 versus 52.2; the flash composite PMI was 50.4 versus 52.0.

 

                        International

 

                        Other

 

The Fed

 

  EU PMIs pose a problem for the ECB.

  https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/euro-zone-services-slide-deepens-economic-gloom-pmi-2023-08-23/

 

Recession

 

  Irresponsible fiscal policy is holding off the recession.

  https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2023/08/23/inflation-recession-debt-lance-roberts

 

And what that means for the Fed’s monetary policy (this article by the Fed whisperer).

https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/recession-fears-have-been-blown-out-of-the-water-long-serving-fed-president-says-da0b5461?mod=economy_lead_story

 

Mortgage rates up, applications down.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-08-23/us-mortgage-rates-jump-to-7-31-highest-level-since-late-2000?srnd=premium&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

              US corporate bankruptcies are on the rise.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/us-corporate-bankruptcies-are-rise

 

            China

 

               A crisis in China would pose difficult choices from both it and the US.

              https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/08/21/paulson-china-economy-xi-jinping-test/

 

              Counterpoint.

              https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/21/opinion/columnists/china-financial-crisis-economy.html

 

     Bottom line

 

            A look at the equity risk premium.

            https://www.capitalspectator.com/so-many-equity-risk-premium-models-so-little-time/

 

            The outlook for dividends.

            https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2023/08/summer-2023-snapshot-of-future-for-s.html

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

What I am reading today

 

            Thursday morning humor.

            https://babylonbee.com/news/biden-tells-fire-victims-he-sympathizes-because-one-time-he-walked-on-the-beach-without-sandals-and-the-sand-was-really-hot

 

            A doorstop worth $75,000.

            https://www.sciencealert.com/man-uses-strange-rock-as-doorstop-for-decades-it-turned-out-to-be-worth-a-fortune

\              

 

            The appalling idea of a national mission.

            https://www.adamsmith.org/blog/the-appalling-idea-of-a-national-mission

 

            Wrap your mind around this.

            https://bigthink.com/starts-with-a-bang/universe-wasnt-empty-before-big-bang/

 

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