The Morning Call---The debt tsunami begins

The Morning Call

 

8/1/23

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Monday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/massive-short-squeeze-july-sends-stocks-5th-month-row-yield-curve-steepens-gold-gains

 

Signs of capitulation are starting to emerge.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-trader-signs-upside-capitulation-are-starting-emerge

 

            The upcoming stock market retreat provides a great buying opportunity.

            https://investorplace.com/hypergrowthinvesting/2023/07/incoming-stock-pullback-reveals-an-attractive-buying-opportunity/

              

            Trading an unstoppable bull market.

 https://realinvestmentadvice.com/trading-an-unstoppable-bull-market/?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=BullBear%20Report%20Trading%20An%20Unstoppable%20Bull%20Market&utm_content=BullBear%20Report%20Trading%20An%20Unstoppable%20Bull%20Market+CID_5b3ed808831411e5e3d842c96243da95&utm_source=RIA%20Email%20Marketing%20Software&utm_term=SEE%20THE%20ENTIRE%20REPORT%20HERE

                                                                                      

            Say hello to August.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/say-hello-august

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

                           

                            The July Chicago PMI was 42.8 versus estimates of 43.3.

 

The July Dallas Fed manufacturing Index was -20 versus projections of -18.

                           

                        International

                          

 The June EU unemployment rate was 6.4% versus consensus of 6.5%; the July German unemployment rate was 5.6% versus 5.7%.

 

  The July Japanese manufacturing PMI was 49.6 versus expectations of 49.4; the July Chinese Caixin manufacturing PMI was 49.2 versus 50.3; the July German manufacturing PMI was 38.8, in line; the July EU manufacturing PMI was 42.7, in line; the July UK manufacturing PMI was 45.3 versus 45.0.

                          

                        Other

 

            The Fed

 

              The Fed can’t take away the punch bowl.

  https://www.forbes.com/sites/johntamny/2023/07/30/get-real-pundits-the-fed-cant-take-away-the-punch-bowl/?sh=649a59385a00&utm_campaign=What%20I%20Am%20Reading&utm_medium=email&_hsmi=268434953&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-_7PEFHn2Ij4Qp0jcKmQPImC4nkchagwD_RheTyx07n6QIFTSjJJx2dxxasGRcG9xbCUklz8cdHwz0OfSgCr6I58z7C5Q&utm_content=268434953&utm_source=hs_email

 

 

              Counterpoint

  https://www.wsj.com/articles/why-the-drivers-of-lower-inflation-matter-fe3f165d?mod=economy_lead_pos3&utm_campaign=What%20I%20Am%20Reading&utm_medium=email&_hsmi=268434953&_hsenc=p2ANqtz--jOC4RzBzwVgge0Fm3_Dh07q_OJwRVFJlPGOgELpdIj9H7ZEBNZybj3wO4QjWnDtfRzs53j_BNQ50VKEiss1QtMhi3DQ&utm_content=268434953&utm_source=hs_email

 

                        Fiscal Policy

 

              The debt tsunami begins (must read)

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/debt-tsunami-begins-us-sell-1-trillion-debt-quarter-2nd-highest-history-budget-deficit

 

 

            Inflation

 

             China deflation fears rising.

  https://www.wsj.com/articles/while-everyone-else-fights-inflation-chinas-deflation-fears-deepen-4045cabf?mod=hp_lead_pos1&utm_campaign=What%20I%20Am%20Reading&utm_medium=email&_hsmi=268434953&_hsenc=p2ANqtz--d8Yw7jdqgRTIS9WgXEa6fovZqxTj2wevUUy8Yd27XX6xu2F62VUHD6wybZAiWhB2lNA-uV4tnzZpHFP_nS1qINT40eg&utm_content=268434953&utm_source=hs_email

 

              Optimism about inflation may be premature.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/optimism-about-inflation-may-be-premature

 

   

            Recession

 

              The clock on the soft landing may be ticking.

  https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/clock-feds-soft-landing-may-already-be-ticking-2023-07-31/?utm_campaign=What%20I%20Am%20Reading&utm_medium=email&_hsmi=268434953&_hsenc=p2ANqtz--d-T9SaroWXTRRlVnf1wIJr4ITs3rCNgUipHbiK1wVUQXYVxRy59gHpFizA_q5XGPZqzLF8UVdaiFRPTWwrT5tJMVZgw&utm_content=268434953&utm_source=hs_email

 

              Banks report tighter lending standards, weaker demand for all types of loans.

              https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2023/07/fed-sloos-survey-banks-reported-tighter.html

 

              Europe returns to timid growth, but headwinds prevail.

  https://www.wsj.com/articles/europe-returns-to-timid-growth-but-bigger-headwinds-loom-  b29121d3?mod=economy_lead_pos1&utm_campaign=What%20I%20Am%20Reading&utm_medium=email&_hsmi=268434953&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-9KAYkIoJSimah9AjsE1Zs5ThiucXWngQemmOgOsYgAPDKvUXwbpM953n25nUIbILiyCEyf-D8-64bqsgtREV4wc1fCRw&utm_content=268434953&utm_source=hs_email

 

    Bottom line

 

            Is the stock market rally a mirage?

            https://www.riskhedge.com/outplacement/is-the-stock-market-rally-a-mirage/rcm

 

Or is it broadening?

https://www.morningstar.com/markets/markets-brief-is-stock-rally-broadening

 

Regime change?

https://allstarcharts.com/regime-change/

 

Profits get a lift from the weak dollar.

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/s-p-500-profits-get-a-lift-from-the-crack-in-king-dollar-s-reign-1.1952253

 

The benefit of owning stocks over bonds is shrinking.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-benefit-of-owning-stocks-over-bonds-keeps-shrinking-20528203?mod=hp_lead_pos2&utm_campaign=What%20I%20Am%20Reading&utm_medium=email&_hsmi=268434953&_hsenc=p2ANqtz--QjFMmoVZwmOwpliNGTSjQktROrpqBJRnjLu-ErqBDilw3U5cY08tAOpCUcTIMSCPFlYOSTzCYQ-W2ar-lq5GNLAkyWQ&utm_content=268434953&utm_source=hs_email

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

Altria press release (NYSE:MO): Q2 Non-GAAP EPS of $1.31 beats by $0.01.

Revenue of $5.44B (+1.3% Y/Y) in-line.

 

T. Rowe Price (NASDAQ:TROW) declares $1.22/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.

 

What I am reading today

 

           

                        Quote of the day.

            https://cafehayek.com/2023/07/bonus-quotation-of-the-day-966.html

 

 

Visit Investing for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home) to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber Service.