The Morning Call---Money supply has shrunk for eight months in a row

The Morning Call

 

8/11/23

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Thursday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/soft-cpi-sloppy-auction-sudden-iran-deal-spark-market-chaos

 

            The dollar is again the most important chart to watch.

            https://allstarcharts.com/track-these-levels-as-the-dollar-bounces/

 

China’s massive breakdown.

https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/chinas-massive-break-down

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

July PPI was up 0.3% versus expectations of +0.2%; July core PPI was up 0.3% versus +0.2%.

                          https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/producer-prices-rose-more-expected-july-money-management-fees-soar

 

                        International

 

Q2 UK GDP grew 0.2% versus consensus of 0.0%; Q2 business investment was up 3.4% versus +0.8%; Q2 YoY construction output was up 4.6% versus +1.9%; June industrial production was up 1.8% versus +0.1%; the June trade balance was L-4.78 billion versus L-4.6 billion.

 

                        Other

 

              The latest Atlanta Fed Q3 GDP nowcast.

              https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow

 

              How accurate are the nonfarm payrolls numbers?

              https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/one-bank-calls-out-bidens-bs-finds-bls-has-greatly-exagerated-july-jobs-real-print

 

The Fed

 

The ECB has always been more dovish than the Fed.  So, it is not surprising that it would be the first to ‘chicken out’ of a tight monetary regime.  Will the Fed be far behind?

https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/ecb-is-back-foot-once-its-down-germany-2023-08-10/

 

  Money supply has shrunk for eight months in a row.

  https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/credit-crunch-money-supply-has-shrunk-eight-months-row

 

Fiscal Policy

 

 Alexander Hamilton’s playbook.

 https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/restoring-america/courage-strength-optimism/us-should-follow-alexander-hamiltons-playbook-for-tackling-the-national-  debt

 

 

            Inflation

 

              How long will companies keep raising prices on consumer goods?

              https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/10/business/rising-prices-consumer-goods.html

 

Recession

 

  Rising fears of a fractured global economy.

  https://www.wsj.com/articles/sputtering-trade-fuels-fears-for-a-connected-world-81c99922?mod=economy_lead_story

 

              China facing a major debt crisis.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/china-facing-bigger-debt-crisis-evergrande-under-30-days

 

     Bottom line

           

            Update on valuations.

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2023/08/10/is-the-market-still-overvalued

 

Are bulls right to be so optimistic?

https://www.ft.com/content/e017d85f-63b7-48ac-abe6-e67ec2f1e884

 

A potential problem in the bond market.

https://www.ft.com/content/cd70b07e-78b7-43c7-b7f0-1170df9d0ded

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

C.H. Robinson Worldwide (NASDAQ:CHRW) declares $0.61/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.

What I am reading today

 

            Friday morning humor

 

 

           

                        Contestable monopolies, if exploited, will be contested.

            https://www.adamsmith.org/blog/contestable-monopolies-if-exploited-will-be-contested

 

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