The Morning Call--Investors should still expect a bumpy road

 

The Morning Call

 

8/2/23

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Tuesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/banks-bonds-bullion-battered-dollar-rips-start-august

 

            From JP Morgan’s trading desk.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/jpm-trading-desk-market-matrix-pullback-coming-time-jackson-hole-followed-inevitable-record

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

  Weekly mortgage applications fell 3.0% while purchase   applications were down 3.2%.

                                    

                          Month to date retail chain store sales grew more rapidly than in the prior                           week.

 

                          June job openings (JOLTS) totaled 9.58 million versus forecasts of 9.66                            million.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2023/08/01/job-openings-decline-slightly-in-june

                                               

                          June construction spending was up 0.5% versus predictions of +0.6%.

                          https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2023/08/construction-spending-increased-05-in.html

 

                          The July manufacturing PMI came in at 49, in line.

 

  The July ISM manufacturing index was reported at 46.4 versus consensus     of 46.8.

                          https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2023/08/ism-manufacturing-index-increased-to.html

 

The July ADP private payroll report showed job increases of 324,000 versus expectations of 189,000.

                          https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/manufacturing-sector-loses-jobs-5th-straight-month-adp-report-shows-wage-growth

 

                        International

 

                        Other

 

                          June median household income.

                          https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2023/08/median-household-income-in-june-2023.html

                      

                         As some consumer tailwinds fade, others emerge.

                         https://www.tker.co/p/consumer-sentiment-real-incomes-rise

           

Fiscal Policy

 

  Fitch downgrades US debt and Yellen is pissed----wooooooooo; that ought to get them running for cover.  And it will keep happening as long as our ruling class continues its irresponsible management of the nation’s finances.  It may not matter now; but at some point, it will.

  https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/fitch-cuts-usas-aaa-rating-cites-fiscal-deterioration-erosion-governance

 

    Bottom line

 

            Does a soft landing really matter?

            https://alhambrapartners.com/2023/07/31/weekly-market-pulse-soft-landing/

 

            A bearish appraisal from Guggenheim.

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2023/08/01/income-outlook-goldilocks-market-interest-rates-guggenheim

 

            Earnings season threatens lofty stock prices.

            https://www.wsj.com/articles/earnings-season-threatens-lofty-stocks-abe4e27a?mod=hp_lead_pos1

 

            Investors should still expect a bumpy road.

            https://www.ft.com/content/c9ff97b9-c485-494e-9474-6bb5507be554

 

            Do you own enough energy?

            https://allstarcharts.com/enough-energy-23/

 

            More valuable reflections from Barry Ritholtz.

            https://ritholtz.com/2023/08/round-trip/

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

Illinois Tool Works press release (NYSE:ITW): Q2 Non-GAAP EPS of $2.41 in-line.

Revenue of $4.1B (+2.5% Y/Y) misses by $30M.

General Dynamics (NYSE:GD) declares $1.32/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.

What I am reading today

 

           

Wednesday morning humor.

https://babylonbee.com/news/san-francisco-demands-elon-musk-remove-bright-sign-disturbing-people-trying-to-poop-on-street

 

Oppenheimer and the birth of the nuclear industrial complex.

https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2023/08/oppenheimer-and-the-birth-of-the-nuclear-industrial-complex.html

 

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