The Morning Call
8/16/23
The
Market
Technical
Tuesday in the charts.
Note: the S&P finished
below both its 50 DMA and the lower boundary of its very short term uptrend. If it remains there through the close today
that uptrend will be voided, and the 50 DMA will revert from support to
resistance. Support now exists at (1)
~4284---its 100 DMA, (2) ~4157---the lower boundary of its short-term uptrend,
and (3) ~4121---its 200 DMA. Follow
through.
Wall Street the least bearish since February 2022.
Corrections
are a choice.
https://allstarcharts.com/corrections-are-a-choice/
Fundamental
Headlines
The
Economy
US
Weekly mortgage applications declined 0.8% while
purchase applications were off 0.3%.
Month to date retail chain store sales grew
faster than in the prior week.
July housing starts were up 3.9% versus
consensus of +1.7%; July building permits were up 0.1% versus +1.1%.
https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/us-building-permits-stagnant-july-mortgage-rates-topped-7
The August housing index came in at 50 versus
forecasts of 56.
International
June EU industrial
production was up 0.5% versus estimates of -0.1%; Q2 GDP grew 0.3%, in line.
July UK CPI was up
0.3% versus predictions of +0.2%.
Other
The
Fed
This analyst believes that the Fed’s job is
done.
https://www.aier.org/article/disinflation-dreams-and-keynesian-confusion/
The end of zero interest rates?
https://econbrowser.com/archives/2023/08/guest-contribution-the-end-of-zero-interest-rates
This is a decent
summation of the problems current central bank monetary policy has caused. But it is short of concrete solutions.
https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2023/08/how-to-fix-monetary-policy-in-advanced-countries.html
Recession
The latest Q3 nowcasts.
https://www.capitalspectator.com/early-us-q3-gdp-nowcasts-point-to-ongoing-economic-growth/
Rising real rates are a good thing.
https://alhambrapartners.com/2023/08/14/weekly-market-pulse-a-positive-feedback-loop/
Beware of Chinese recession:
China’s downside
surprises.
https://econbrowser.com/archives/2023/08/china-downside-surprises
Chinese central banker calls of ‘helicopter
money’.
But Japan is doing great.
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/14/business/japan-economy-gdp.html
Credit is the next shoe to drop.
What is
the yield curve saying now?
https://www.wsj.com/articles/what-wall-streets-top-recession-gauge-is-saying-now-67232353
Bottom line
Stocks or
government bonds?
Government
Bonds Or Stocks? Which Is A Better Choice Now? - RIA (realinvestmentadvice.com)
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
What
I am reading today
The
irrational behavior of western elites.
Your
flaw is your strength.
https://traderfeed.blogspot.com/2023/08/your-flaw-is-your-strength.html
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for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home)
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