The Morning Call---Apparently the fat lady hasn't sung yet

The Morning Call

 

5/11/23

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Wednesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/cpi-slip-sparks-market-chaos-banks-bitcoin-bond-yields-battered

 

            How much risk can equities ignore?

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/how-much-risk-can-equities-ignore

 

            Gold looks pricey.

            https://www.capitalspectator.com/gold-looks-pricey-based-on-a-fair-value-model/

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

                          Weekly initial jobless claims totaled 264,000 versus estimates of 245,000.

                           https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/job-market-cracks-initial-claims-unexpectedly-soar-highest-october-2021

 

                          April PPI was up 0.2% versus expectations of +0.3%.

                          https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/us-producer-price-inflation-tumbles-lowest-jan-2021

 

                         The April budget surplus was $176 billion versus forecasts of $235 billion.

 

                        International

 

April Chinese CPI was -0.1% versus projections of 0.0%; April YoY PPI   was -3.6% versus -3.2%.

 

                        Other

 

                          Update on the misery index.

                          https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2023/05/misery-index.html

 

                          Update on US/China trade numbers.

                          https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2023/05/rebound-in-trade-between-us-and-china.html#.ZFvPtnbMKUk

 

The Fed

 

  The Bank of England raises rates 25 basis points.

  https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/boe-hikes-25bps-forecasts-higher-inflation-and-warns-more-tightening

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              The cost of government regulation.

              https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2023/may/8/even-minor-actions-by-government-can-cause-economi/

 

              Quote of the day.

              https://cafehayek.com/2023/05/quotation-of-the-day-4262.html

 

              The price of exorbitant spending.

              https://www.city-journal.org/article/high-government-spending-undermines-feds-inflation-measures

          

            Inflation

 

              Another vote for a 3% inflation target.

              https://ritholtz.com/2023/05/3-or-bust/

 

                Recession

 

I thought this chart interesting not particularly from the standpoint of inflation but notice the very high correlation between a decline in the headline number and a recession.

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2023/05/10/consumer-price-index-april-headline-at-4-9-down-from-march

 

            The Banking System

 

              Apparently, the fat lady hasn’t sung yet.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/pacwest-shares-crash-after-reporting-deposit-flight-accelerated-last-week

 

     Bottom line.

 

            The number of holdings needed to achieve effective diversification.

            https://mailchi.mp/verdadcap/diversification-or-di-worse-ification?e=b838bc224f

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

 

What I am reading today

 

           

 

 

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