The Morning Call--The Treasury could issue as much as $700 billion in bills following a debt ceiling ageement

 

The Morning Call

 

5/24/23

 

The Market

         

    Technical

               

            Tuesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/debt-ceiling-doubts-finally-weigh-stocks-gold-bid

  

            Another three charts worth watching.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/three-charts-we-are-watching-0

 

And some more charts.

https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/cracks-beneath-surface

 

For the bulls.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stock-markets-rise-looking-less-bear-market-rally

 

For the bears.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/make-it-stop-amid-impossibly-easy-vol-trading-nomura-worries-about-what-happens-next

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

                          

Weekly mortgage applications dropped 4.6% while purchase applications were down 4.3%.

 

Month to date retail chain store sales grew slightly slower than in the prior week.

 

April new home sales rose 4.1% versus consensus of -2.0%.

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2023/05/23/new-home-sales-jump-4-1-in-april

 

The May Richmond Fed manufacturing index came in at -15 versus predictions of -8.

                           https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2023/05/23/richmond-fed-manufacturing-activity-deteriorated-in-may

 

The May flash manufacturing PMI was 48.5 versus estimates of 50.0; the May flash services PMI was 55.1 versus 52.6; the May flash composite PMI was 54.5 versus 50.0.

 

 

                        International

 

April UK CPI was +1.2% versus expectations of +0.8%; core CPI was +1.3% versus +0.7%; the May industrial trends orders index was -17 versus -19.

 

The May German business climate index was 91.7 versus forecasts of 93.0; the May current conditions index was 94.8, in line.

 

                        Other

 

The Fed

 

  Velocity and money supply.

   https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/velocity-and-money-supply-inflations-dance-partners

 

Fiscal Policy

 

  More mischief from our professional managerial class.

  https://lawliberty.org/mandating-mortgage-taxes/

 

  The federal debt is growing at an unsustainable rate.

  https://www.hoover.org/research/slouching-toward-debt

 

The Treasury could issue as much as $700 billion in bills following a debt ceiling agreement.

              https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/bonds/treasury-general-account-tbills-liquidity-debt-limit-ceiling-us-default-2023-5

 

                           What happened to ‘paying off the national debt’?

              https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2023/05/what-happened-to-paying-off-national.html

 

 

            Inflation

 

              Saudi energy minister warns oil speculators.

                          https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-05-23/saudi-energy-minister-tells-oil-speculators-to-watch-out?srnd=premium&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

            Recession

 

              Bankruptcies are skyrocketing.

              https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/4011001-bankruptcies-are-skyrocketing-and-thats-only-half-the-story/

                     

              Small business spending tumbles.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/brace-impact-small-business-spending-suddenly-tumbles-first-annual-drop-over-two-years

 

            The Debt Ceiling

 

              Investors need to find something else to worry about.

              https://alhambrapartners.com/2023/05/22/weekly-market-pulse-politicians-acting-badly/

 

            Geopolitics

 

              The unthinkable becomes thinkable.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/once-again-apparently-unthinkable-becomes-inevitable

 

    Bottom line

 

            More on valuation.

            https://www.morningstar.com/articles/1159333/is-the-stock-market-expensive

 

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

Bank of Nova Scotia press release (NYSE:BNS): Q2 Non-GAAP EPS of C$1.70 misses by C$0.08.

Revenue of C$7.93B (-0.1% Y/Y) misses by C$80M.

 

Bank of Nova Scotia (NYSE:BNS) declares CAD 1.06/share quarterly dividend, 2.9% increase from prior dividend of CAD 1.03.

 

What I am reading today

 

           

 

 

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