The Morning Call--The Fed keeps getting it wrong

The Morning Call

 

5/9/23

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

Monday in the charts.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/credit-squeeze-vibes-leave-bonds-banks-lower-bitcoin-battered-binance-blockages

 

China adds to its gold reserves for sixth straight month.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/china-gold-splurge-reaches-sixth-032412236.html

 

And it is not the only one.

https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/central-bank-gold-buying-record-breaking-start-2023-led-singapore

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

The April small business optimism index came in at 89.0 versus forecasts of 89.6.

 

                        International

 

March Japanese household spending fell 0,8% versus expectations of +1.5%; March YoY average earnings were up 0.8% versus +1.5%.

 

The April Chinese trade balance was $90.2 billion versus consensus of $71.6 billion.

 

                        Other

 

            The Fed

 

              The Fed keeps getting it wrong.

              https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2023/05/08/taking-risk-no-longer-necessary-but-that-is-a-problem

 

              Comparing the speed of interest rate hikes 1988-2023.

              https://www.visualcapitalist.com/interest-rate-hikes-1988-2023

 

                        

Fiscal Policy

 

              First, do no harm.

              https://time.com/6277025/us-government-interest-rates-debt/

 

            Recession

 

              The odds are stacked against Powell’s no recession forecast.

  https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-05-07/powell-s-recession-forecast-overlooks-looming-credit-crunch-dc-standoff-bad-we?srnd=premium&sref=loFkkPMQ

           

 

            The Debt Ceiling

 

              The debt ceiling noncrisis.

  https://realinvestmentadvice.com/debt-ceiling-non-crisis-and-the-feds-last-rate-hike/?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=BullBear%20Report%20Debt%20Ceiling%20Non-Crisis%20And%20The%20Feds%20Last%20Rate%20Hike&utm_content=BullBear%20Report%20Debt%20Ceiling%20Non-Crisis%20And%20The%20Feds%20Last%20Rate%20Hike+CID_9ce77931b02df8d33ef1de96c207095d&utm_source=RIA%20Email%20Marketing%20Software&utm_term=SEE%20THE%20ENTIRE%20BULLBEAR%20REPORT%20HERE

 

 

The Banking System

 

  Banks reported tighter lending standards, fewer loans.

  https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2023/05/fed-survey-banks-reported-tighter.html

 

  Which the Fed’s senior loan officer survey confirms.

  https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/sloos-finds-even-tighter-credit-standards-collapse-ci-loan-demand-and-dire-outlook-rest

 

The coronavirus

 

  The failures of the CDC.

  https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2023/05/rochelle-walensky-not-with-a-bang-but-a-puddle-of-tears.html

 

     Bottom line.

 

            Everybody is confused.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-05-07/powell-s-recession-forecast-overlooks-looming-credit-crunch-dc-standoff-bad-we?srnd=premium&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

            The relative valuation of US versus international stocks.

            https://www.ft.com/content/cea03ae6-2ce3-4059-8b84-902e67b54fb5

 

            Glass half empty investors.

            https://ritholtz.com/2023/05/half-empty/

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

 

What I am reading today

 

            America will (hopefully) never give up its ideals.

            https://brownstone.org/articles/america-will-never-give-up-its-ideals/

 

 

Reverse ATMs

https://www.axios.com/2023/04/24/reverse-atms-banking-cashless-payments

 

Quote of the day.

https://cafehayek.com/2023/05/quotation-of-the-day-4260.html

 

            Hayek’s birthday.

            https://www.adamsmith.org/blog/hayeks-124th

 

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