The Morning Call--Dueling strategists

 

The Morning Call

 

5/23/23

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

Monday in the charts.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/despite-hawkish-fedspeak-deposit-outflows-banks-lead-squeezy-stocks-higher-hedges-hit

 

            Bull/bear spread declining.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/we-need-much-more-bulls-join

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

                          April building permits fell 1.4% versus forecasts of -1.5%.

 

                        International

 

The May Japanese flash manufacturing PMI was 50.8 versus predictions of 50.2; the May flash services PMI was 57.8 versus 55.4; the May flash composite PMI was 54.9 versus 53.4.

 

The May German flash manufacturing PMI was 42.9 versus estimates of 45.0; the May flash services PMI was 57.8 versus 55.5; the May flash composite PMI was 54.3 versus 53.5.

 

The May EU flash manufacturing PMI was 44.6 versus consensus of 46.2; the May flash services PMI was 55.9 versus 55.6; the May flash composite PMI was 53.3 versus 53.7.

 

The May UK flash manufacturing PMI was 46.9 versus expectations of 48.0; the May flash services PMI was 55.1 versus 55.5; the May flash composite PMI was 53.9 versus 54.6.

 

                        Other

 

            The Fed

 

              A June pause in rate hikes doesn’t mean that the Fed is done.

  https://www.cnbc.com/2023/05/22/feds-kashkari-says-june-rate-pause-wouldnt-show-end-to-hiking-cycle.html?utm_campaign=What%20I%20Am%20Reading&utm_medium=email&_hsmi=259314737&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-8UzMepVxUX3JiblTvxiScBTmFhq0o23-b4PcDZbw4DJDZzwR6kv_Df9-4R1GsXUuGyOxrDPz1nrbJ31oDU8m9NtaD7rg&utm_content=259314737&utm_source=hs_email

 

 

            Inflation

 

              The battle against inflation is nowhere near won.

              https://brownstone.org/articles/the-battle-against-inflation-is-nowhere-near-won/

 

              Survey of economists points to continued high inflation and interest rates this year.

              https://www.yahoo.com/news/survey-economists-inflation-stay-high-223117309.html

 

            Recession

 

              Housing market says no recession.

              https://www.carsongroup.com/insights/blog/the-leading-indicator-thats-pointing-away-from-a-recession/

 

              So does the consumer.

              https://www.tker.co/p/consumer-spending-resilient-finances-strong

 

              So does monetary policy.

              https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2023/05/22/bear-market-is-possibly-over-roberts

 

                The Banking System

 

              Jamie Dimon is worried about QT.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/jamie-dimon-warns-qt-will-lead-more-bank-failures

 

                Geopolitics

 

              Behind the headlines in Ukraine.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/seymour-hersh-something-else-cooking-ukraine

 

            China

 

              China’s local debt problem.

              https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2023-05-21/china-s-23-trillion-local-debt-crisis-threatens-xi-s-economy?sref=loFkkPMQ

 

     Bottom line.

 

            Q1 earnings better than expected.

            https://www.axios.com/2023/05/22/recession-outlook-corporate-america

 

            Morgan Stanley doesn’t think the current rally is the start of a bull market.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-05-22/morgan-stanley-s-wilson-says-this-isn-t-start-of-new-bull-market?srnd=premium&leadSource=uverify%20wall&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

                        Dueling strategists.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bank-america-capitulates-raises-sp-price-target-4300-even-bearish-mike-wilson-refuses-throw

 

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

What I am reading today

 

            Quote of the day.

            https://cafehayek.com/2023/05/quotation-of-the-day-4273.html

 

 

 

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