The Morning Call--The extraordinary generosity of central banks towards banks

 

The Morning Call

 

5/16/23

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Monday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/banks-bond-yields-jump-goolsbee-gensler-biden-bad-data

 

Bears about to give up?

https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/bears-about-give

 

            US equity funds see massive outflow.

https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-equity-funds-see-massive-outflows-debt-ceiling-worries-2023-05-12/?utm_campaign=What%20I%20Am%20Reading&utm_medium=email&_hsmi=258139982&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-_PbvmdvdNlE5UxVyrnWIusXcPINaUNlGRw0szajejI1X1BYIPSDUQ1OeUXduE7Lwaeo5-rMTXcFNAG39JsUiFbqYHZ7g&utm_content=258139982&utm_source=hs_email

 

            Is the bond market about to roll over?

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bond-market-about-get-intimidating-again

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

April retail sales grew 0.4% versus estimates of +0.8%; ex gas and autos, they were up 0.6% versus +0.2%.

 

                        International

 

The March UK unemployment rate was 3.9% versus projections of 3.8%; Q1 labor productivity was -1.4% versus +0.2%.

 

The March EU trade balance was E+25.6 billion versus consensus of E-12.7 billion; Q1 GDP growth was +0.1%, in line: the May economic sentiment index was -9.4 versus -1.0.

 

The April Chinese unemployment rate was 3.9% versus expectations of 3.8%; April YoY industrial production was +5.6% versus +10.9%; April YoY retail sales were +18.4% versus +21.0%.

 

The May German economic sentiment index was -10.7 versus predictions of -5.3; the May current conditions index was -34.8 versus -37.0.

 

                        Other

 

                          Household debt rises to $17 trillion.

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2023/05/15/household-debt-rises-to-17-05-trillion-amidst-higher-mortgage-auto-and-student-loan-balances

                   

                          Dollar weaponization expands.

                          https://www.zerohedge.com/political/dollar-weaponization-expands-fdic-message-foreign-depositors-dont-trust-us

 

            Inflation

 

              Inflation is so over.

              http://scottgrannis.blogspot.com/2023/05/inflation-is-so-over.html

 

  Why aim for 2% inflation?

  https://blog.independent.org/2023/05/12/why-aim-2-percent-inflation/

 

The Debt Ceiling

 

  Plunging tax revenues accelerate debt ceiling deadline.

  https://www.wsj.com/articles/plunging-tax-revenue-accelerates-debt-ceiling-deadline-58816deb?mod=economy_lead_story

 

The Banking System

 

  The extraordinary generosity of central banks towards banks (must read).

  https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2023/05/the-extraordinary-generosity-of-central-banks-towards-banks-some-reflexions-on-its-origin.html

 

    Bottom line

 

            The latest from John Mauldin.

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2023/05/13/plan-for-paralysis-mauldin

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

Home Depot press release (NYSE:HD): Q1 GAAP EPS of $3.82 beats by $0.03.

Revenue of $37.3B (-4.1% Y/Y) misses by $1.05B.

 

What I am reading today

 

            A mission driven life.

            https://traderfeed.blogspot.com/2023/05/greatness-as-mission-driven-life.html

                

                        Counterpoint: the show about nothing.

            https://www.nytimes.com/2023/05/12/arts/television/seinfeld-finale-anniversary.html

 

 

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