Thursday, May 25, 2023

The Morning Call---Still few signs of recession

The Morning Call

 

5/25/23

 

The Market

         

    Technical

               

            Wednesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/debt-ceiling-doubts-skyrocket-everything-sold

 

            Funds flow has changed dramatically.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/elevator-down-goldman-desk-trader-warns-our-flow-has-dramatically-changed

 

On the other hand---

https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/3-charts-we-are-watching-finally-fomo

 

            Are the dollar and interest rates headed higher?

            https://allstarcharts.com/will-the-usd-jpy-breakout-refresh-last-years-woes/

 

            More room for dollar strength.

            https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-05-23/goldman-sachs-says-there-is-more-room-for-dollar-strength?sref=loFkkPMQ

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

  Weekly initial jobless claims totaled 229,000, versus projections of 245,000.                  

                             

   The Q1 2nd estimate of GDP growth was +1.3% versus consensus of +1.1%; corporate profits were -6.8% versus -0.9%; the price index was +4.2% versus +4.0%; the core price index was +5.0% versus +4.9%.

                       

  The April Chicago national activity index came in at +0.07 versus forecasts of +0.2

 

                        International

 

Q1 German final GDP growth was -0.3% versus estimates of 0.0%; June consumer confidence was -24.2 versus -24.0.

 

                        Other

 

            The Fed

 

              This fund manager thinks that the markets are wrong about the Fed.

  https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-05-24/jupiter-shorts-most-dangerous-treasuries-builds-cash-pile?srnd=premium&leadSource=uverify%20wall&sref=loFkkPMQ

                                      

 

              And he is not the only one.

              https://www.ft.com/content/002edc0f-44be-43c5-9b52-99e1ae234a6b

 

The minutes from the last FOMC meeting were released.  Despite a slightly more dovish tone, the Market wasn’t happy.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fomc-minutes-show-some-fed-officials-push-more-hikes-sees-mild-recession-2023

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              The pause in student loan repayments led borrowers to take on more debt.

              https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2023/05/the-student-loan-payment-pause-led-borrowers-to-take-on-more-debt.html

 

            Recession

 

              Still few signs of recession.

              https://www.capitalspectator.com/us-recession-risk-may-be-easing-no-thanks-to-manufacturing/#more-20232

 

            The Debt Ceiling

 

              Thoughts on the X date.

              https://econbrowser.com/archives/2023/05/x-date-estimate-june-5-or-so

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

                

BlackRock (NYSE:BLK) declares $5.00/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.

 

What I am reading today

 

            How new rules turned back the clock on baseball.

            https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/05/24/upshot/up-baseball-metrics.html

 

 

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