The Morning Call--Economy starts to show signs of cooling

 

The Morning Call

 

5/12/23

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Thursday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/mouse-house-mullered-banks-battered-mega-cap-tech-turbocharged

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

                        International

                       

March UK GDP fell 0.3% versus estimates of being flat; March industrial production was up 0.7% versus 0.0%; the March trade balance was L-16.3 billion versus L-17.5 billion; March YoY construction output was up 4.1% versus +3.6%; Q1 business investment was up 0.7% versus -0.4%.

                       

                        Other

                             

                          Import/export prices signal deflationary impulse.

                          https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/us-import-export-prices-signal-massive-deflationary-impulse

 

                          Inside CPI.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2023/05/11/inside-the-consumer-price-index-april-2023

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

Honest government numbers?              https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2023/05/is-there-an-honest-government-agency.php

 

            Inflation

 

              Consumers may be getting used to higher prices---and that is bad news.

              https://www.wsj.com/articles/we-may-be-getting-used-to-high-inflation-and-thats-bad-news-d3a63e6f?mod=economy_lead_pos3

 

            Recession

 

              The economy starts to show signs of cooling.

  https://www.wsj.com/articles/supplier-prices-rose-modestly-in-april-539f17ab?mod=economy_lead_story&utm_campaign=What%20I%20Am%20Reading&utm_medium=email&_hsmi=257938971&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-_255tGsIebAIdNxbko-clOSS0LJUrrb0_41pZweg16zzPf1Qifxzey4wM-Dj3ryLhI-sUu2T7SGR1IeWes2b9qB8jhBQ&utm_content=257938971&utm_source=hs_email

 

              Mortgage delinquencies near record low.

              https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2023/05/mba-mortgage-delinquency-rate-in-first.html

 

              The best performing asset during a recession.

              https://www.morningstar.com/articles/1156532/whats-the-best-performing-asset-type-during-a-recession

 

            The Debt Ceiling

 

              Estimates of the X date.

              https://econbrowser.com/archives/2023/05/estimates-of-the-x-date

        

              How to hedge the debt ceiling crisis.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/heres-how-hedge-coming-debt-ceiling-crisis

 

          The Banking System

 

             Credit tightening likely won’t end soon.

            https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-credit-crunch-didnt-start-with-svb-collapse-may-not-end-there-2023-05-10/

           

    Bottom line

 

            The ten-year Treasury is below fair value.

            https://www.capitalspectator.com/10-year-us-treasury-yield-fair-value-estimate-11-may-2023/

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

What I am reading today

 

            Do you get richer invading a country to take its assets or trading with it?

            https://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2023/05/11/the_answer_to_all_of_our_problems_stares_us_in_the_face_898743.html

 

 

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