The Morning Call--Bank deposit flight seals deal for recession

 

The Morning Call

 

3/16/23

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Wednesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/panic-meltdowns-people-crying

 

            There is some good news.

            https://thereformedbroker.com/2023/03/15/the-good-news-2/

 

            And here is some bad news—declining liquidity in the Treasury market.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/treasury-market-glitches-out-liquidity-disappears-fed-funds-sofr-futures-halted

 

            Macro volatility suggests that stocks should be lower.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/macro-volatility-suggests-equities-should-be-lower

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

                            

Weekly initial jobless claims totaled 192,000 versus estimates of 205,000. 

                             https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/jobless-claims-data-continues-confound

                            

February housing starts were up 9.8% versus consensus of +0.5%; building permits were up 13.8% versus +0.2%.

                             https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/housing-starts-permits-soar-feb-renter-nation-reasserts-itself

 

                             The March housing index came in at 44 versus projections of 40.

                             https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2023/03/nahb-builder-confidence-increased-in.html

 

The March Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index was -8 versus expectations of +2.

                                      

                        International

 

January Japanese industrial production was down 5.3% versus predictions of -4.6%; capacity utilization was down 5.5% versus down 1.9%;  the February trade balance was Y-897.7 billion versus Y-1069.4 billion.

 

                        Other

 

                          Goldman cuts GDP forecast.

                          https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-cuts-gdp-outlook-small-bank-stress-blowback

 

            Recession

 

              Bank deposit flight seals deal for recession.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bank-deposit-flight-seals-deal-us-recession

 

            The Banking System

 

              The banking system is more vulnerable than you think.

              https://www.ft.com/content/84c4446a-d7aa-4f70-a286-adeb4fc4988c

 

              Fed to consider tougher rules for mid-size banks.

              https://finance.yahoo.com/news/u-fed-consider-tougher-rules-230621225.html

 

             The irony in the Silicon Valley Bank demise.

             https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/the-end-of-silicon-valley-bank-and-a-silicon-valley-myth/ar-AA18C7qV

 

              The Swiss National Bank backstops Credit Suisse.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/credit-suisse-sparks-global-de-risking-after-top-investor-bails

 

              Comments from Carl Icahn and Sheila Bair.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/investor-carl-icahn-issues-grim-warning-us-economy-breaking-down

 

            China

 

This is a decent argument for China not invading Taiwan; but, in my opinion, the author comes off a little soft on how to handle China today.

              https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2023/03/why-china-is-unlikely-to-invade-taiwan.html

 

    Bottom line.

 

            And now for a little sphincter tightening---the latest from John Hussmann.

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2023/03/15/headed-for-the-tail

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

 

What I am reading today

 

           

 

 

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