The Morning Call--Where the financial risks lie

 

The Morning Call

 

3/28/23

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Monday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bitcoin-bonds-big-tech-bullion-breakdown-banks-black-gold-bounce

 

            The Fed’s balance sheet and the dollar.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bank-crisis-remedy-threatens-put-more-pressure-dollar

 

            Credit stress remains elevated.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/stubborn-credit-stress

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

What the recent relative strength of various stock market sectors tells us about sentiment.  (must read).

https://traderfeed.blogspot.com/2023/03/understanding-market-themes-from-sector.html

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

                          Month to date retail chain store sales grew slower than in the prior week.

 

                          The January Case Shiller home price index rose 2.5%, in line.

 

February retail inventories, ex autos, were up 0.4% versus estimates of -0.2%; February wholesale inventories were up 0.2% versus -0.2%.

 

The March Dallas Fed manufacturing index was reported at -15.7 versus expectations of -10.0.

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2023/03/27/dallas-fed-manufacturing-business-conditions-continued-to-worsen-in-march

 

                        International

 

                        Other

 

            The Fed

 

              ‘Not QE’ puts the Fed between a rock and a hard place.

              https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2023/03/27/not-qe-puts-fed-between-a-rock-and-a-hard-place

 

            The Banking System

 

              Loan growth (or lack thereof) suggests that a hard landing is on the way.

              https://thereformedbroker.com/2023/03/27/a-shock-to-lending-standards/

 

              Policy makers dual nightmare.

              https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2023/03/23/policymakers-face-two-nightmares-stubborn-inflation-and-market-chaos

 

              Where the financial risk lies.

  https://www.wsj.com/articles/where-financial-risk-lies-in-12-charts-792bca35?mod=markets_lead_pos5&utm_campaign=What%20I%20Am%20Reading&utm_medium=email&_hsmi=251781487&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-_-yHa6j-V4z2aFGMfPivDtJd4Gg0Asnrmwctn_ypJPkJejNJqmGZ5oGk_nw6l2TWy3REVUnEZzEKQ4JVKaSxDGv5XSww&utm_content=251781487&utm_source=hs_email

 

           

              The risks posed by private equity firms.

                          https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-03-27/banking-crisis-raises-concerns-about-hidden-leverage-in-the-system?srnd=premium&sref=loFkkPMQ

           

     Bottom line

 

            Six nuggets of investment wisdom from Charles Ellis.

            https://www.evidenceinvestor.com/charley-ellis-six-nuggets-of-investment-wisdom/

 

            Estimating future stock returns.

            https://alephblog.com/2023/03/25/estimating-future-stock-returns-december-2022-update/

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

 

What I am reading today

 

            Quote of the day.

            https://cafehayek.com/2023/03/quotation-of-the-day-4220.html

 

 

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