The Morning Call
3/15/23
The
Market
Technical
Tuesday in the
charts.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/relief-rally-wrecked-ratings-agencies-russia-bitcoin-bid
Note: at the close
yesterday, under our time and distance discipline, the S&P reset its 200
DMA from support to resistance. However,
the hard bounce off its 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level on Monday coupled
with yesterday’s positive pin action puts the index back very near its 200
DMA. That sets up a tight trading range
between the Fibonacci retracement level (~3817) on the downside and the 200 DMA
(~3940) on the upside. Let’s see which
way it breaks.
The falling dollar
is a plus for stocks.
https://allstarcharts.com/if-us-dollar-index-below-105-buy-stocks/
Fundamental
Headlines
The
Economy
US
February PPI came in
at -0.1% versus estimates of +0.3%; core PPI was 0.0% versus +0.4%.
February retail
sales were down 0.4% versus predictions of -0.3%; ex autos, they were down
0.1%, in line.
The March NY Fed manufacturing
index was reported at -24.6 versus consensus
of -8.0.
International
January EU industrial
production was up 0.7% versus expectations of +0.4%.
January/February
Chinese YoY industrial production rose 2,4% versus projections of +2.6%;
January/February YoY retail sales were up 3.5%, in line; the February
unemployment rate was 5.6% versus 5.5%.
February German
PPI was up 0.1% versus forecasts of +0.6%.
Other
Inside
yesterday’s CPI report.
https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2023/03/cleveland-fed-median-cpi-increased-06.html
https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2023/03/yoy-measures-of-inflation-services.html
The Fed
The Fed’s dilemma.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/nomura-fed-faces-two-exceptionally-divergent-paths
Fiscal
Policy
The unconstitutional tax on unrealized capital
gains.
https://www.aier.org/article/the-unconstitutional-tax-on-unrealized-capital-gains/
The Banking System
The crisis
continues as Credit Suisse appears next on the list of casualties (the European
banks are much more leveraged than US banks).
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/credit-suisse-sparks-global-de-risking-after-top-investor-bails
It isn’t a bailout.
https://alhambrapartners.com/2023/03/12/weekly-market-pulse-it-isnt-a-bailout/
A rose by any
other name is still a rose: the most thorough review that I have seen of the Silicon
Valley Bank collapse, its causes and effects.
The argument for bailing out large
depositors.
https://www.capitalspectator.com/nobody-expects-a-banking-crisis-but/
Counterpoint.
It is not the bailing out of large depositors
that is the problem.
The impact of rate changes on a bank’s balance
sheet.
https://fedguy.com/hidden-to-market/
Banks trade relief now for regulation later.
A reverse Minsky moment?
https://theirrelevantinvestor.com/2023/03/11/a-reverse-minsky-moment/
Bottom line
Buffett on stock
buybacks. I would add to this commentary
that those buybacks were facilitated by corporate America’s ability to borrow
money cheap (thanks to QEInfinity).
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2023/03/13/buffett-on-buybacks
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
Microsoft
(NASDAQ:MSFT) declares $0.68/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.
What
I am reading today
Quote
of the day.
https://cafehayek.com/2023/03/quotation-of-the-day-4207.html
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