The Morning Call---The bank collapse review

 

The Morning Call

 

3/14/23

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Monday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/big-trouble-little-banks-bailout-sparks-buying-panic-bonds-bitcoin-bullion

 

            What comes next?

            https://traderfeed.blogspot.com/2023/03/broad-stock-market-selloff-what-comes.html

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

                          Month to date retail chain store sales grew slower than in the prior week.

 

The February small business optimism index was reported at 90.9 versus consensus of 90.4.

 

February CPI was up 0.4%, in line; core CPI was up 0.5% versus +0.4%.

 

                        International

 

The January UK unemployment rate was 3.7% versus expectations of 3.8%; January average earnings were up 5.7%, in line.

 

                        Other

 

                          Update on big four economic indicators.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2023/03/10/the-big-four-economic-indicators-february-employment

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              Biden’s new tax plan still leaves soaring red ink.

  https://nypost.com/2023/03/09/bidens-5-trillion-tax-blowout-still-leaves-soaring-red-ink/?utm_campaign=What%20I%20Am%20Reading&utm_medium=email&_hsmi=249807323&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-8qj4vzQ2PWUXxszPe3DvK71jSHztTIrV2sLD4FkOvJ1Y6QssdK0ao1lecLJQMH7ktxtvfwBkDqes93NWx9NHldUsb0ig&utm_content=249807323&utm_source=hs_email

 

 

            The Banking System

 

              What we don’t know about Silicon Valley Bank’s collapse.

              https://ritholtz.com/2023/03/do-not-know-svb/

 

              The Silicon Valley Bank collapse is not a Lehman moment.

              https://nypost.com/2023/03/10/silicon-valley-banks-collapse-isnt-a-lehman-moment-at-least-not-yet/

 

              The Fed’s backstop measures.

              https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-03-12/us-moves-to-help-depositors-offer-bank-backstop-in-wake-of-svb?srnd=premium&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

A somewhat different take: Fed makes a non-bailout bailout and continues class warfare.

              https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2023/03/us-officials-make-non-bailout-bailout-of-silicon-valley-and-signature-bank-and-continue-class-warfare.html

 

 

                          And appears to be making universal deposit insurance the default policy.

              https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-silicon-valley-bank-bailout-chorus-yellen-treasury-fed-fdic-deposit-limit-dodd-frank-run-cc80761e?mod=opinion_lead_pos1

 

Federal Home Loan Banks raising $64 billion suggests deposit outflows.     https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/federal-home-loan-banks-raising-64-billion-backstop-cash-points-surge-deposit-outflows

 

Goldman thinks that now the Fed won’t raise rates in March but could do so in May.

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/13/goldman-sachs-no-longer-expects-the-fed-to-hike-rates-in-march.html

 

On the other hand, the Fed’s action could be impacted by today’s CPI report.

https://www.axios.com/2023/03/14/fed-after-svb-bailout

 

Banks sitting on $620 billion in unrealized losses.

https://www.ibtimes.com/us-banks-hold-620-billion-unrealized-losses-sparking-contagion-concerns-3676303

 

              Interbank funding stress explodes.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/usa-sovereign-credit-risk-hits-record-high

 

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What I am reading today

 

           

 

 

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