The Morning Call--Deepest bond yield inversion since Volcker suggested a hard landing

 

The Morning Call

 

3/10/23

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Thursday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/banks-bitcoin-bond-yields-battered-ahead-payrolls-print-bullion-bid

 

Note: the S&P blew through its 100 and 200 DMA’s and made a new lower low (having just made a lower high on Wednesday)---not encouraging.  However, our time and distance discipline dictates that we wait two more days to reset the 100 DMA to resistance and three more days to reset the 200 DMA to resistance.  In short, be patient for a bit longer before assuming a downtrend has been established.

 

            Update on margin debt.

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2023/03/08/margin-debt-up-5-7-in-january

 

            Funds flow analyst turns bearish.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/flow-guru-stays-bearish

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

February nonfarm payrolls increased by 311,000 versus estimates of up 205,000.

 

                        International

 

January Japanese household spending was up 2.7% versus predictions of +1.4%; February PPI was -0.4% versus -0.3%.

 

January UK GDP was up 0.3% versus consensus of +0.1%; January industrial production was -0.3% versus -0.1%; the January trade balance was L-7.8 billion versus L-6.6 billion.

 

February German CPI was up 0.8%, in line.

 

                        Other

 

Fragmented globalization and its impact on economic growth and inflation.

https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/globalization-not-ending-but-becoming-more-fragmented-by-mohamed-a-el-erian-2023-03?utm_source=project-syndicate.org&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=authnote

 

                          Update on Q1 GDP nowcasts.

                          https://www.capitalspectator.com/median-us-gdp-estimate-for-q1-ticks-slightly-positive/

 

            The Fed

 

              The Fed on track to price stability---and recession.

              https://www.ft.com/content/8c4f27fb-f49a-40de-a9dd-353186ac41a5

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              Biden’s dead on arrival 2024 budget plan.

              https://www.wsj.com/articles/bidens-budget-would-cut-deficits-by-3-trillion-over-10-years-raise-taxes-on-businesses-b5081d03?mod=economy_lead_pos1

 

            Recession

 

              Imports from China continue to crater.

              https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2023/03/us-imports-from-china-continue-cratering.html#.ZAn4gnbMKUk

 

              Deepest bond yield inversion since Volcker suggested a hard landing.

              https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-03-07/deepest-bond-yield-inversion-since-volcker-suggests-hard-landing?sref=loFkkPMQ

 

     Bottom line.

 

            The next Big Short.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/hedge-funds-pile-new-big-short-next-credit-event-emerges

 

            Great investors’ secret.

            https://bestinterest.blog/great-investors-little-secret/

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

Kroger (NYSE:KR) declares $0.26/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous

 

What I am reading today

 

           

                        On the FBI’s policy of civil asset forfeiture.

            https://cafehayek.com/2023/03/on-the-banana-republic-practice-of-civil-asset-forfeiture.html

 

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