The Morning Call---The bond market's best recession indicator plunges

 

The Morning Call

 

3/9/23

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Wednesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/good-news-bad-news-again-jobs-data-jolts-markets-sends-rate-hike-odds-soaring

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

Weekly initial jobless claims totaled 211,000 versus projections of 195,000.

 

The January total job openings (JOLTS) report showed 10.8 million available jobs versus consensus of 10.5 million.

                          https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2023/03/bls-job-openings-decreased-to-108.html

 

                        International

 

Q4 Japanese GDP growth was 0.0% versus estimates of +0.2%; Q4 capital expenditures fell 0.5% versus -0.4%; Q4 private consumption was up +0.3% versus +0.5%; February YoY machine tool orders declined 10.7% versus +2.3%.

 

The February Chinese CPI fell 0.5% versus expectations of +0.2%; February YoY PPI was -1.4% versus -1.3%.

 

                        Other

 

            The Fed

 

              The Fed’s trillion dollar bridge to nowhere.

  https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/3886002-the-feds-trillion-dollar-bridge-to-nowhere/?utm_campaign=What%20I%20Am%20Reading&utm_medium=email&_hsmi=249140639&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-_SuX8mKAEvEZtkLncNHxJR9AWHsbv6Rk3rmts5RuJ63UUbNVDDCD827Ubi39oSetveRYgZ6sV5TI8ZefWzQaNuzGUXyA&utm_content=249140639&utm_source=hs_email

 

 

The Fed released its latest Beige Book report in which six districts reported no     economic improvement while another six indicated some modest increase.  Here is a more a detailed report:

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/beige-book-finds-drop-inflation-concerns-expectations-continued-price-wage-moderation

 

Odds are rising that the Fed will trigger the next bust---but perhaps not as bad as this analyst suggests.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/odds-are-rising-fed-will-trigger-next-bust

 

            Inflation

 

              Oil executives warn of higher prices.

              https://www.ft.com/content/f1674a6e-39ae-4abb-ae2a-40fefb58d6b9

 

            Recession

 

              The best solution for reducing noise in recession risk estimates.

              https://www.capitalspectator.com/the-best-solution-for-reducing-recession-risk-noise/

 

              The bond markets best recession gauge plunges to triple digits below zero.

              https://www.marketwatch.com/story/bond-market-recession-gauge-plunges-to-triple-digits-below-zero-on-way-to-fresh-four-decade-milestone-41448336

 

              US container imports plunge.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/us-container-imports-plunge-recession-fears-mount

 

     Bottom line

 

            The latest look at the total return roller coaster.

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2023/03/07/the-latest-look-at-the-total-return-roller-coaster

 

                The latest from Sanford Bernstein.

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2023/03/07/dont-speculate-on-speculation

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

General Dynamics (NYSE:GD) declares $1.32/share quarterly dividend, 4.8% increase from prior dividend of $1.26.

 

What I am reading today

 

            Thursday morning humor.

           

 

            The luckier you are, the nicer you should be.

            https://collabfund.com/blog/the-luckier-you-are-the-nicer-you-should-be/

 

            How much money buys happiness?

            https://ritholtz.com/2023/03/does-money-buy-happiness/

 

            How stupid do you think we are?

            https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2023/03/how-stupid-do-they-think-we-are-nord-stream-pipelines-bombing-edition.html

 

 

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