The Morning Call--Junk bond spreads show economy is near recession

 

The Morning Call

 

3/30/23

 

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Wednesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bonds-quiet-too-quiet-again-bitcoin-big-tech-surge

 

            The impact of changes in the Fed’s balance sheet.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/biggest-delta-matters

 

            What the price of gold may be telling us.

            https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2023/03/gold-prices-real-yields-and-paradigm.html#.ZCRzEXbMKUk

 

            Goldman sees a change in sentiment.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-trader-theres-been-interesting-shift-market-sentiment

 

            And this from Goldman’s head of derivative trading.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-zero-bulls-out-there

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

                          Weekly initial jobless claims totaled 198,000 versus forecasts of 196,000.

 

                          February pending home sales rose 0.8% versus estimates of -2.3%.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2023/03/29/pending-home-sales-grew-for-third-consecutive-month-up-0-8-in-february

 

Final Q4 GDP growth was +2.6% versus expectations of +2.7%; the Q4 PCE price index was 3.9%, in line; the core PCE price index was 4.4% versus 4.3%; Q4 real consumer spending was +1.0% versus +1.4%.

 

                        International

 

March EU economic sentiment  was 99.3 versus projections of 99.8; industrial sentiment was -0.2 versus +0.2; services sentiment was 9.4 versus 10.3; consumer confidence was 19.2, in line.

 

                          March German CPI was +0.8% versus consensus of +0.7%.

 

                        Other

 

            The Fed

 

              And you think that you are confused.

              https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/3921016-shifting-monetary-policy-lags-confuse-markets-and-central-bankers/

 

              Quote of the day.

              https://cafehayek.com/2023/03/quotation-of-the-day-4222.html

 

            Inflation

 

              YoY rent growth continues to decelerate.

              https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2023/03/year-over-year-rent-growth-continues-to_29.html

 

            Recession

 

              The latest nowcasts raise the estimate for Q1 GDP growth.

              https://www.capitalspectator.com/softer-but-still-resilient-growth-expected-for-us-q1-gdp/

 

              Junk bond spreads show that economy is near recession.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/junk-spreads-show-us-economy-close-recession

 

            The Banking System

 

              Misdiagnosing Silicon Valley Bank.

              https://withoutwarning.substack.com/p/misdiagnosing-svb

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

Paychex press release (NASDAQ:PAYX): Q3 Non-GAAP EPS of $1.29 beats by $0.05.

Revenue of $1.38B (+7.8% Y/Y) beats by $30M.

 

What I am reading today

 

            The implausibility of net zero carbon future.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/political/implausibility-net-zero-carbon-energy-future-now-obvious

 

 

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