Investing for Survival: The Morning Call---Key yield curve signal shows recession as early as June.

The Morning Call

3/3/23

The Market

Technical

Thursday in the charts.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bostic-batters-stock-bears-bond-yields-soar-after-record-inflation

The technical factors behind the bounce.

https://quantifiableedges.com/a-cbi-of-8-or-9-and-a-20-day-low-above-the-200ma/

Expect some more upside.

https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/spx-we-have-seen-movie

Bond volatility moving higher.

https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/moveing-higher

Fundamental

Headlines

The Economy

International

January Japanese unemployment was 2.4% versus predictions of 2.5%; February YoY CPI was 3.4% versus 4.0%; YoY CPI ex food and energy was up 1.8% versus +1.6%.

The January German trade balance was E10.8 billion versus consensus of E8.6 billion.

January EU PPI was -2.8% versus expectations of -0.3%.

The February Japanese services PMI was 54.0 versus forecasts of 53.6; the February composite PMI was 51.7 versus 50.7; the February Chinese Caixin services PMI was 55.0 versus 53.8; the February composite PMI was 54.2 versus 52.5; the February German services PMI was 50.9 versus 51.3 the February composite PMI was 50.7 versus 51.1; the February EU services PMI was 52.7 versus 53.0; the February composite PMI was 52.0 versus 52.3; the February UK services PMI was 53.5 versus 53.3; the February composite PMI was 53.1 versus 53.0.

Other

The Fed

Here is another analyst that thinks that the Fed will have to abandon its 2% inflation target---and the consequences thereof.

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2023-03-01/fed-s-2-inflation-target-won-t-survive-a-soft-landing?sref=loFkkPMQ

My favorite optimist disagrees.

http://scottgrannis.blogspot.com/2023/03/m2-smoking-gun-of-inflation.html

The Fed still has a long way to go.

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/01/a-year-later-the-fed-still-has-a-long-way-to-go-in-the-fight-against-inflation.html?utm_campaign=What%20I%20Am%20Reading&utm_medium=email&_hsmi=248397024&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-_uWxO7U40bPYSlci5WwZtGyZzfz_0hLEoKYgpR96hVQeu948D9bQB1m12of-aUhmgnYk_syS9s5Gf-EGCK1vsFLNDRuA&utm_content=248397024&utm_source=hs_email

Recession

Key yield curve signal shows US recession due as early as June.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/key-yield-curve-signal-shows-us-recession-due-soon-june

Has the housing market already turned.