The Morning Call
1/31/23
The
Market
Technical
Monday in the
charts.
Note: the S&P closed
back below the upper boundary of its short term downtrend, negating last
Thursday’s challenge. Not great news for
the bulls. But a number of our stocks
made gap down opens which generally builds in a reversal to at least fill those
gaps. Plus, we need follow through before
we assume upward momentum has been broken.
Is the market
pricing in a debt ceiling shutdown?
https://theirrelevantinvestor.com/2023/01/29/a-government-shutdown/
What is the most
mispriced risk in the Market?
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/what-most-mispriced-risk-markets-2023
Are we setting up
for a dollar reversal?
https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/are-we-setting-dollar-reversal
Fundamental
Headlines
The
Economy
US
Month to date retail chain store sales grew faster
than in the prior week.
The January Dallas
Fed manufacturing index came in at -8.4 versus expectations of -11.
International
Q4 EU GDP grew +0.1% versus projections of
-0.1%.
The December Japanese
unemployment rate was 2.4%, in line; December preliminary industrial production
was -0.1% versus -1.2%; December retail sales were up 1.1% versus +0.6%;
December YoY housing starts fell 1.7% versus +0.5%; January consumer confidence
was 31.0 versus 30.5.
December German
retail sales were down 5.3% versus estimates of +0.2%; the January unemployment
rate was 5.5%, in line.
The January Chinese
manufacturing PMI was 50.1 versus consensus of 49.8; the January nonmanufacturing
PMI was 54.4 versus 47.3.
Other
‘Hard’ versus ‘soft’ economic data.
https://www.tker.co/p/weekly-macro-soft-vs-hard-data
US employment cost index up less than
anticipated.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/us-employment-cost-index-surges-record-507-yoy
Inflation
Already back to 2% inflation?
https://www.cato.org/blog/pce-inflation-fell-21-second-half-77-first-0
Inflation and consumer spending cooled in
December.
German industry to pay 40% more for energy
than pre-crisis.
Recession
The serious mortgage delinquency rate
increased slightly in December.
https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2023/01/fannie-mae-mortgage-serious-delinquency.html
Has the housing
market bottomed?
Real disposable income per capita continues
to rise.
Geopolitics
More on the Rand study, Ukraine and the likelihood
of success.
The war that went wrong (must read).
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/hedges-ukraine-war-went-wrong
Bottom line
Simple but hard.
https://ritholtz.com/2023/01/simple-but-hard/
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
What
I am reading today
How
to define poverty.
https://www.adamsmith.org/blog/but-heres-the-thing-we-have-beaten-poverty
Visit Investing
for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home)
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