The Morning Call---Time to buy bonds?

 

The Morning Call

 

3/25/22

 

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Thursday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bitcoin-bullion-big-tech-bond-yields-rise-crude-crumbles

 

            What about breadth?

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/cj1srd54sg

 

            Yield curve worries appear premature.

            https://sentimentrader.com/blog/yield-curve-worries-look-premature/

 

            Ed Yardini makes a similar point.

            https://www.linkedin.com/in/edward-yardeni/recent-activity/

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

                          Weekly jobless  claims totaled 187,000 versus projections of 212,000.

 

February durable goods orders fell 2.2% versus estimates of -0.5%; ex transportation, they were down 0.6% veresus+0.6%.

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2022/03/24/headline-durable-goods-orders-down-2-2-in-february

 

The March flash manufacturing PMI came in at 58.5 versus consensus of 56.3; the flash services PMI was 58.9 versus 56.0; the flash composite PMI as 58.5 versus 55.4.

 

The March Kansas City Fed manufacturing index was 37 versus forecasts of 24.

 

                        International

 

February UK retail sales were off -0.3% versus expectations of +0.6%; ex fuel, they were -0.7% versus +0.5%.

 

The March flash Japanese manufacturing PMI was reported at 53.2 versus predictions of 51.0; the flash services PMI was 48.7 versus 46.0; the flash composite PMI was 49.3 versus 46.0;

 

the March flash German manufacturing PMI was 57.6 versus 44.8; the flash services PMI was 55.0 versus 53.8; the flash composite PMI was 54.6 versus 52.7; the March business climate index was 90.8 versus 94.2;

 

the March EU flash manufacturing PMI was 57.0 versus 56.0; the flash services PMI was 54.8 versus 54.2; the flash composite PMI was 54.5 versus 53.9; March consumer confidence was -31 versus -30;

 

the March UK flash manufacturing PMI was 55. Versus 56.7; the flash services PMI was 61.0 versus 58.0; the flash composite PMI was 59.7 versus 57.8; March YoY auto production dropped 41.0% versus -9.0%:

.

                        Other

 

            The Fed

 

              Odds don’t favor a soft landing.

              https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-odds-dont-favor-the-feds-soft-landing-11648045029

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              The SEC’s climate control disclosure proposal politicizes corporate oversight.

              https://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2022/03/24/the_secs_climate-disclosure_proposal_politicizes_corporate_oversight_823362.html

 

 

            Inflation

 

              Fertilizer prices surging leaving farmers shocked.

              https://www.wsj.com/articles/fertilizer-prices-surge-as-ukraine-war-cuts-supply-leaving-farmers-shocked-11648114381?mod=markets_lead_pos5

 

              Traders warn of looming global diesel shortage.

              https://www.ft.com/content/31f73f95-d914-46a1-b610-0c7fc5da493c

 

              Dems propose inflationary bill to curb inflation.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/democrats-propose-inflationary-bill-offset-inflation

 

              Housing affordability continues to fall.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/housing-affordability-crisis-imminent-mortgage-rates-hit-3-year-high

 

            Bottom line.

 

              Panic selling quantified.

              https://ritholtz.com/2022/03/panic-selling-quantified/

 

              Time to buy bonds.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/surge-bond-yields-says-its-time-buy-bonds

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

FactSet Research Systems press release (NYSE:FDS): Q2 Non-GAAP EPS of $3.27 beats by $0.30.

Revenue of $431.1M (+10.0% Y/Y) beats by $4.01M.

 

What I am reading today

 

            Niall Ferguson on misunderstanding history.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/niall-ferguson-misunderstanding-history-biden-making-colossal-mistake

 

 

Visit Investing for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home) to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber Service.

 

 

 

The Morning Call--early

 

The Morning Call

 

3/24/22

 

I will be up early and travelling tomorrow.  So this is a little early.

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Wednesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bonds-bullion-black-gold-babki-jump-stocks-dump

 

            Real yields and the price of gold.

            https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2022/03/real-yields-and-price-of-gold.html#.YjtR8erMKUk

 

            Bond yields and the copper/gold ratio.

            https://www.linkedin.com/in/edward-yardeni/recent-activity/

 

            US government debt suffers largest decline since 2016.

            https://www.ft.com/content/4ae7d6fc-49d3-43dc-9fce-8aaa6c94999b

 

            This is now the worst drawdown ever for global fixed income.

            https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-23/global-bond-losses-deepen-to-11-from-2021-high-most-on-record?srnd=premium&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

            Mortgage rates are surging.

            https://alephblog.com/2022/03/22/welcome-back-to-1994/

 

            The liquidity problems continue for the large commodity trading firms.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/trading-houses-will-collapse-margin-call-doom-loop-goes-global-trafigura-cfo-warns

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

                          February new home sales fell 2% versus consensus of up 1.1%.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2022/03/23/new-home-sales-down-2-in-february

 

                        International

 

Flash March EU consumer confidence came in at -18.7 versus predictions of -12.9.

 

                        Other

 

            The Fed

 

              M2 growth slows but it is still too fast.

              https://scottgrannis.blogspot.com/2022/03/m2-growth-slows-but-its-still-too-fast.html

 

The author of this article makes a good point that high interest rates retard investment an environment of supply constrained inflation.  However, the proposed solution is lots of government intervention in the marketplace where government intervention was responsible for the supply constraints in the first place.

              https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2022/03/stagflation-threat-be-pragmatic-not-dogmatic.html

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              Government debt and inflation.

              https://www.aier.org/article/government-debt-and-inflation-reality-intrudes/

 

              More from the geniuses in congress.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/house-dems-want-stop-oil-inflation-creating-money-out-thin-air-offering-americans-direct

 

            Geopolitics

 

              Red lines.

              https://www.adamsmith.org/blog/red-lines

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

 

What I am reading today

 

            Another great piece from Morgan Housel.

            https://www.collaborativefund.com/blog/think/

 

 

 

Visit Investing for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home) to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber Service.

 

 

 

The Morning Call--Is the Fed on the verge of a mistake?

 

The Morning Call

 

3/23/22

 

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Tuesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stocks-extend-historic-short-squeeze-melt-recession-rate-cut-odds-rise

 

            The Market pulse.

            https://alhambrapartners.com/2022/03/20/weekly-market-pulse-all-clear/

 

            BTFD or STFR?

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/btfd-or-stfr-which-it

 

            Bonds: break or brake?

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/breakbrake

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

Weekly mortgage applications fell 8.1% while purchase applications declined 1.5%.

 

The March Richmond Fed manufacturing index came in at +13 versus expectations of -1.

 

                        International

 

The January Japanese leading economic indicators were reported at 102.5 versus estimates of 103.7.

 

February UK CPI was +0.8% versus projections of +0.6%; core CPI was +0.8% versus +0.5%.

 

                        Other

 

                          People still want to do things and that’s bullish.

                          https://www.tker.co/p/consumers-spending-travel-leisure-services?s=r

           

            The Fed

 

              Larry Summers on the Fed’s latest move.

              http://larrysummers.com/2022/03/20/the-stock-market-liked-the-feds-plan-to-raise-interest-rates-its-wrong/

 

              Is the Fed on the verge of a policy mistake?

              https://www.pragcap.com/is-the-fed-on-the-verge-of-a-policy-mistake/

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              Enough is enough (spending).

              https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/599045-from-economic-sleight-of-hand-to-stark-reality

 

                Inflation

 

              Housing affordability is crashing.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/housing-affordability-about-crash-most-record

 

            Geopolitics

 

              Misunderstanding Russian strategy.

              https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2022/03/ukraine-latest-more-shortages-misunderstanding-russian-strategy.html

 

              How effective are the Russian sanctions?

              https://econbrowser.com/archives/2022/03/guest-contribution-surprisingly-strong-sanctions

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

 

What I am reading today

 

            Unintended consequences.

            https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2022/03/whats-substitute-for-sugary-soft-drinks.html#.Yjn6v-rMKUk

 

 

Visit Investing for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home) to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber Service.

 

 

 

The Morning Call--Are we already in a recession?

 

The Morning Call

 

3/22/22

 

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Monday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bonds-stocks-battered-powell-goes-full-volcker-crude-surges

 

            A deeper look at the Market internals.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/sleepy

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

Month to date retail chain store sales grew a roughly the same pace as in the prior week.

 

                        International

 

January EU YoY construction output rose 4.1% versus consensus of -0.5%.

 

March UK industrial trends orders index came in at 26 versus predictions of 16.             

 

                        Other

 

                          Are we already in a recession?

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2022/03/21/recession-risk-rising-rapidly-or-could-we-be-in-one-already

 

                          Brace for a recession.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2022/03/18/brace-for-recession-impact?firm=mauldin-economics

 

            The Fed

 

In a speech before the National Association of Business Economic, Powell doubled down on hawkish view.

https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/watch-live-fed-chair-powell-speaks-economic-conference

 

            Inflation

 

              Four reasons why high inflation will persist in 2022.

              https://fullstackeconomics.com/four-reasons-well-get-high-inflation-again-in-2022/

 

              Repeating old mistakes.

              https://www.city-journal.org/repeating-old-oil-mistakes

 

              The bird flu has already claimed 12 million chickens and turkeys.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/medical/death-toll-rises-over-12-million-chickens-and-turkeys-2nd-month-americas-horrific-bird-flu

 

              What can the Fed do about the price of food, gasoline, medicine or rent?

              https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/what-can-fed-do-about-price-food-medicine-gasoline-or-rent

 

              Dust Bowl conditions threaten winter wheat harvest.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/weather/severe-drought-dust-bowl-conditions-threaten-disastrous-winter-wheat-harvest-us

 

            Geopolitics

 

              David Stockman gives another lesson on the history of Ukraine.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/stockman-slams-zelenskyys-hyperbole-pearl-harbor-my-eye

 

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

Nike press release (NYSE:NKE): FQ3 GAAP EPS of $0.87 beats by $0.15.

Revenue of $10.87B (+4.9% Y/Y) beats by $260M.

 

What I am reading today

 

           

 

 

Visit Investing for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home) to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber Service.