The Morning Call
11/11/26
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The
Market
Technical
Tuesday in the
charts.
Tuesday in the
technical stats.
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/market-performance
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/signals/new-recommendations
Thoughts on Market
direction after the sell off and bounce.
The real test lies ahead.
https://www.capitalspectator.com/stocks-rebound-but-the-real-test-lies-ahead/
The seduction of market bounces on the way
down.
The problem with Monday’s
meltup.
One last flush.
Is the puke finally over?
Wednesday morning
setup: US futures are higher as a trifecta of AI catalysts, i) CoreWeave's
beat-and-raise, ii) reports that Anthropic's bankers are weighing an IPO
valuation of $1.5 trillion or more and iii) word that OpenAI's quarterly
revenue hit $10 billion for the first time, revived the battered tech trade and
helped markets shrug off Tuesday's hot CPI hangover, even as oil rebounded
after Iran's IRGC claimed two tankers hit mines in the Strait of Hormuz; as a
result Nasdaq futures have more than recouped Tuesday's losses while cash
Treasuries, closed for Veterans Day, sit just shy of 5% on the 10Y. As of 8:15
am ET, S&P futures are up 0.9% while Nasdaq 100 futures rise 1.8% and Dow
futures are up 0.2%. On Tuesday the S&P 500 recovered from its session low
to close down just 0.4% at 7,521 after the hotter than expected CPI print and
hawkish Fedspeak; without Nvidia and Microsoft it would have finished in the
green. Premarket, semis are surging, with SOXX up 5.2% and DRAM up 8%, Nvidia
is up 5.1% and the Mag 7 are mostly higher; CoreWeave jumps 13% after boosting
its annual revenue forecast and easing fears about its debt-laden business
(some of which we flagged
last night), pushing Nebius and Marvell higher with it. The day's driver
is AI (again): with hedge funds having cut risk at the steepest pace in
more than a decade, positioning, not macro, is doing the heavy lifting
for the tape, per Goldman's Rich Privorotsky. With the cash bond market
shut, 10Y TSY futures are down about 6 ticks, indicating yields back over 5%,
as Fed hike bets grow: a December 25bp hike is fully priced with some odds of
50bps, and Goldman added a third hike for March. The dollar is modestly firmer,
with the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index up 0.1% and USD/JPY briefly topping 159
for the first time since late September. In commodities, Brent snapped a
two-day losing streak, rising about 2% to above $93 on Iranian rhetoric, the
Hormuz mine claims and a drone attack on Russia's Ust-Luga port; gold is up
0.4% to around $4,050 and silver jumps 2.7%. Bitcoin is a touch lower around
$73,600. The US economic data slate is limited to MBA mortgage applications at
7am; there are no Fed speakers on the schedule. US stock markets are open, but
the bond market is closed for Veterans Day.
Fundamental
Headlines
The
Economy
US
Weekly mortgage
applications rose 6.2% while purchase applications were up 7.5%.
Month to date
retail chain store sales were up 10.1% versus +10.4% in the prior week.
International
October Japanese
YoY machine tool orders were up 42.5% versus forecasts of +54.5%.
October German CPI
fell 0.2%, in line.
Other
Inside yesterday’s CPI.
https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2026/11/october-cpi-another-hot-month-for.html
Iran
Iran throws a monkey wrench in the nuclear talks.
Fiscal
Policy
Social Security deficit blows out.
The
Election
More questions than answers.
https://alhambrapartners.com/weekly-market-pulse-more-questions-than-answers/?src=news
AI
Why Nvidia’s nightmare may be just beginning.
Is there an AI
bubble?
https://matteoraso.github.io/im-not-convinced-the-ai-bubble-exists.html
AI
power stocks tumble.
How much of the proposed AI buildout will actually get
done?
Investing
The AI buildout
isn’t a red or blue issue.
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
What
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