The Morning Call---Time to buy bonds?

 

The Morning Call

 

3/25/22

 

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Thursday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bitcoin-bullion-big-tech-bond-yields-rise-crude-crumbles

 

            What about breadth?

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/cj1srd54sg

 

            Yield curve worries appear premature.

            https://sentimentrader.com/blog/yield-curve-worries-look-premature/

 

            Ed Yardini makes a similar point.

            https://www.linkedin.com/in/edward-yardeni/recent-activity/

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

                          Weekly jobless  claims totaled 187,000 versus projections of 212,000.

 

February durable goods orders fell 2.2% versus estimates of -0.5%; ex transportation, they were down 0.6% veresus+0.6%.

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2022/03/24/headline-durable-goods-orders-down-2-2-in-february

 

The March flash manufacturing PMI came in at 58.5 versus consensus of 56.3; the flash services PMI was 58.9 versus 56.0; the flash composite PMI as 58.5 versus 55.4.

 

The March Kansas City Fed manufacturing index was 37 versus forecasts of 24.

 

                        International

 

February UK retail sales were off -0.3% versus expectations of +0.6%; ex fuel, they were -0.7% versus +0.5%.

 

The March flash Japanese manufacturing PMI was reported at 53.2 versus predictions of 51.0; the flash services PMI was 48.7 versus 46.0; the flash composite PMI was 49.3 versus 46.0;

 

the March flash German manufacturing PMI was 57.6 versus 44.8; the flash services PMI was 55.0 versus 53.8; the flash composite PMI was 54.6 versus 52.7; the March business climate index was 90.8 versus 94.2;

 

the March EU flash manufacturing PMI was 57.0 versus 56.0; the flash services PMI was 54.8 versus 54.2; the flash composite PMI was 54.5 versus 53.9; March consumer confidence was -31 versus -30;

 

the March UK flash manufacturing PMI was 55. Versus 56.7; the flash services PMI was 61.0 versus 58.0; the flash composite PMI was 59.7 versus 57.8; March YoY auto production dropped 41.0% versus -9.0%:

.

                        Other

 

            The Fed

 

              Odds don’t favor a soft landing.

              https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-odds-dont-favor-the-feds-soft-landing-11648045029

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              The SEC’s climate control disclosure proposal politicizes corporate oversight.

              https://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2022/03/24/the_secs_climate-disclosure_proposal_politicizes_corporate_oversight_823362.html

 

 

            Inflation

 

              Fertilizer prices surging leaving farmers shocked.

              https://www.wsj.com/articles/fertilizer-prices-surge-as-ukraine-war-cuts-supply-leaving-farmers-shocked-11648114381?mod=markets_lead_pos5

 

              Traders warn of looming global diesel shortage.

              https://www.ft.com/content/31f73f95-d914-46a1-b610-0c7fc5da493c

 

              Dems propose inflationary bill to curb inflation.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/democrats-propose-inflationary-bill-offset-inflation

 

              Housing affordability continues to fall.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/housing-affordability-crisis-imminent-mortgage-rates-hit-3-year-high

 

            Bottom line.

 

              Panic selling quantified.

              https://ritholtz.com/2022/03/panic-selling-quantified/

 

              Time to buy bonds.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/surge-bond-yields-says-its-time-buy-bonds

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

FactSet Research Systems press release (NYSE:FDS): Q2 Non-GAAP EPS of $3.27 beats by $0.30.

Revenue of $431.1M (+10.0% Y/Y) beats by $4.01M.

 

What I am reading today

 

            Niall Ferguson on misunderstanding history.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/niall-ferguson-misunderstanding-history-biden-making-colossal-mistake

 

 

Visit Investing for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home) to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber Service.