The Morning Call---Futures crash, dollar craters

 

The Morning Call

 

4/3/25

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Wednesday in the charts.

                        https://www.zerohedge.com/market-recaps/stocks-pumpndump-again-ahead-trumps-tarrific-presser-hard-data-strengthens-one-year

 

            Another MACD crossover warning.

            https://talkmarkets.com/content/stocks--equities/sp-500-chart-analysis?post=489741

           

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

Weekly initial jobless claims totaled 219,000 versus consensus of 225,000.

 

The February trade balance was -$122.7 billion versus projections of -$123.5 billion.

 

February factory orders were up 0.6% versus forecasts of +0.5%; ex transportation, they were up 0.4% versus +0.5%.

 

                        International

 

                          February EU PPI was up 0.2% versus predictions of +0.1%.

 

The March Japanese services PMI came in at 50.0 versus estimates of 49.5; the March composite PMI was 48.9 versus 48.5; the March Chinese Caixin services PMI was 51.9 versus 51.6; the March composite PMI was 51.8 versus 51.7; the March German services PMI was 50.9 versus 50.4; the March composite PMI was 51.3 versus 50.9; the March EU services PMI was 51.0 versus 50.4; the March composite PMI was 50.9 versus 50.2; the March UK services PMI was 52.5 versus 52.2; the March composite PMI was 51.5 versus 52.0.

 

 

 

 

                        Other

 

                          March YoY heavy truck sales down 12%.

                          https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/04/heavy-truck-sales-decreased-12-yoy-in.html

 

                          Wednesday in the economic charts.

                          https://dailyshotbrief.com/the-daily-shot-brief-april-1st-2025/

 

            Overnight News

 

              Futures crash, dollar craters.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/market-recaps/reign-tariffs-begins-futures-crash-dollar-craters

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              No president can overcome a weak dollar.

              https://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2025/04/02/no_president_can_overcome_a_weak_dollar_trump_included_1101324.html

 

              Playing defense instead of offense.

              https://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2025/04/02/trump_is_playing_defense_when_he_should_be_playing_offense_1101382.html

 

              The system is broken.

              https://mishtalk.com/economics/how-much-credit-expansion-does-it-take-to-grow-real-gdp/

 

            Tariffs

 

              Worse than expected.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-panics-much-worse-expected

 

              Trust: the ultimate price of Trump’s tariff policy.

              https://danieldrezner.substack.com/p/the-exorbitant-price-of-trumps-tariffs

 

              Are farm subsidies government waste, fraud and abuse?

              https://www.cato.org/blog/trumps-trade-wars-harm-farmers-taxpayers

 

              Bigger than Smoot Hawley.

              https://econbrowser.com/archives/2025/04/doug-irwin-bigger-than-smoot-hawley

 

              The beginning of a new era?

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/will-today-go-down-history-beginning-new-era

 

     Investing

 

            March dividends by the numbers.

            https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2025/04/dividends-by-numbers-in-march-2025-and.html

           

            The threat to the high yield credit market.

                        https://talkmarkets.com/content/economics--politics/an-invisible-threat-could-bring-down-the-entire-financial-system?post=489697

 

            In praise of doing nothing.

            https://www.safalniveshak.com/dont-do-something-sit-there/

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

 

What I am reading today

 

           

 

 

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The Morning Call--Valuation evaluation

 

The Morning Call

 

4/2/25

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Tuesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/market-recaps/stocks-bonds-crypto-soar-isms-scream-stagflation-hard-landing-odds-surge

 

            MACD indictor approaching a Sell signal.

            https://talkmarkets.com/content/us-markets/the-last-time-this-happened-stocks-collapsed-30?post=489535

 

            Pensions spark Buy imbalance.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/buybacks-blacked-out-pensions-spark-largest-buy-imbalance-record-rescue-stocks-yesterday

 

            Mag 7 in bear market.

            https://www.ft.com/content/ad80f737-3261-4e11-8608-2ed3db522e55

 

            Elliott Wave analysis of Ethereum.

            https://talkmarkets.com/content/market-commentary-education/ethereum-is-unfolding-a-five-wave-bearish-impulse?post=489519

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

Weekly mortgage applications fell 1.6% while purchase applications were up 1.5%.

 

                          Month to date retail chain store sales grew slower than in the prior week.

 

February construction spending increased 0.7% versus consensus of +0.3%.

https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2025/04/february-construction-spending-nominal.html

 

February job openings (JOLTS) totaled 7.56 million versus expectations of 7.63 million.

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/04/01/jolts-report-job-openings-february-2025

 

The March manufacturing PMI came in at 50.2 versus estimates of 49.8.

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/04/01/sp-global-manufacturing-pmi-march-2025

 

The March ISM manufacturing index was reported at 49.0 versus predictions of 49.5.

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/04/01/ism-manufacturing-pmi-contracts-march-2025

 

The March ADP private payrolls report recorded a 155,000 increase in jobs versus forecasts of up 105,000.

                          https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/recession-narrative-bust-adp-employment-report-shows-jobs-resurgent-march

 

                        International

 

                        Other

 

                          The weak dollar effect.

                          https://alhambrapartners.com/weekly-market-pulse-the-weak-dollar-effect/?src=news

 

                          February median household income.

                          https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2025/04/median-household-income-in-february-2025.html

 

                          Will the next recession be self-inflicted?

  https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-04-01/tariffs-can-be-reversed-but-too-late-to-avoid-a-recession?srnd=homepage-americas&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

                          Tuesday in the economic charts.

                          https://dailyshotbrief.com/the-daily-shot-brief-march-31st-2025/

 

            Tariffs

 

The argument for tariffs. The counter argument to this is that the more economically interdependent the globe is, the less likely is war.

https://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2025/03/on_the_importance_of_president_trump_s_liberation_day.html

 

              Counterpoint.

              https://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/31/opinion/trump-tariffs-economy.html

 

              Yet another problem created by Trump’s tariffs.

              https://www.wsj.com/business/autos/mercedes-benz-tried-hard-to-be-american-it-still-got-hit-by-tariffs-f2e1e4d1?mod=hp_lead_pos2

 

              Bracing for the fall out.

              https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2025/04/bracing-for-the-fallout-of-trump-tariff-delusions.html

 

    Investing

 

            Taming your lizard brain.

            https://www.tker.co/p/barry-ritholtz-how-not-to-invest-cowboy-account

 

            Failure at the 200 DMA.

            Failure At The 200-DMA - RIA

 

            Update on the Ivy Portfolio.

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/03/31/moving-averages-ivy-portfolio-sp500-march-2025

 

            Valuation evaluation.

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2025/04/01/price-you-pay-valuation-evaluation

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

What I am reading today

 

           

                        Argentina to declassify Nazi archives.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/argentina-declassify-nazi-archives-did-hitler-escape-there-too

 

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The Morning Call---Negative earnings revisions hit decade high

 

The Morning Call

 

4/1/25

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Monday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/market-recaps/oil-gold-soar-us-stocks-suffer-worst-quarter-versus-rest-world-23-years

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

                          The March Chicago PMI came in at 47.6 versus estimates of 45.2.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/03/31/chicago-pmi-hits-highest-level-since-november-2023

 

The March Dallas Fed manufacturing index was reported at -16.3 versus predictions of -12.0.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/03/31/dallas-fed-manufacturing-conditions-worsen-to-8-month-low

 

                        International

 

The February Japanese unemployment rate was 2.4% versus forecasts of 2.5%; the Q1 large manufacturers index was 12, in line; the Q1 large nonmanufacturers index was 35 versus 33; the Q1 small manufacturers index was +2 versus -1; Q1 all industry cap ex was up 3.1% versus +11.0%; the March manufacturing PMI was 48.4 versus 48.3.

 

The February EU unemployment rate was 6.1% versus consensus of 6.2%; the March flash CPI was +0.6%, in line.

 

The March Chinese Caixin manufacturing PMI was 51.2 versus expectations of 51.1; the March German manufacturing PMI was 48.3, in line; the March EU manufacturing PMI was 48.6 versus 48.7; the March UK manufacturing PMI was 44.9 versus 44.6.

 

                        Other

 

                          Uncertainty impacting consumption.

                          https://econbrowser.com/archives/2025/03/consumption

 

                          March consumer sentiment versus consumer confidence.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/03/31/two-measures-of-consumer-attitudes-march-2025

 

Goldman raises 2025 forecast for inflation and lowers it for economic growth.

https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/goldman-sachs-lifts-u-s-recession-probability-to-35-ce285ebc?mod=economy_lead_pos1

 

                          Monday in the economic charts.

                          https://dailyshotbrief.com/the-daily-shot-brief-march-28th-2025/

 

            Overnight News

 

President Trump said that he had settled on a plan for his latest batch of tariffs expected this week but didn’t reveal what he had decided, after his economic team struggled to coalesce around a remade U.S. trade strategy. He wants to both raise revenue with tariffs and use them as leverage to get other nations to lower their own duties, or make other policy changes.

 

EU Commission President von der Leyen says the bloc has the power to push back against US tariffs; all instruments are on the table for countermeasures; EU is open to negotiations on trade. Says EU needs to take down the remaining barriers in the single market. Adds, EU has a strong plan to retaliate if necessary and will use it.

 

UK PM Starmer says discussions on an economic deal with the US are "well advanced".

 

            Monetary Policy

 

              M2 update.

              https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WM2NS

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              The weak dollar is MAGA’s silent killer.

              https://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2025/03/31/the_weaker_us_dollar_is_magas_silent_killer_1100789.html

 

              Fraud in the social security system.

              https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2025/03/inside-social-security.php

 

            Inflation

 

              Inflation galore.

              https://wolfstreet.com/2025/03/28/inflation-galore-now-fed-started-rate-cuts-at-the-low-point-6-months-ago-just-as-inflation-began-to-resurge/

 

              Counterpoint.

              https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2025/03/why-i-am-not-concerned-by-february.html

 

              February CPI versus PCE price index.

              https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/03/31/two-measures-of-inflation-february-2025

 

            Tariffs

 

              How the trade war damages Apple.

              https://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2025/03/31/trumps_trade_war_is_damaging_one_of_the_uss_most_valuable_companies_1100452.html

 

              Tariffs repel foreign investment.

              https://www.wsj.com/opinion/tariffs-repel-foreign-investment-trade-policy-economy-833d4d2a?mod=opinion_lead_pos11

           

              Do trade deficits matter?

              https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2025/03/31/trade-deficits-matter-do

 

     Investing

 

            Invest based on what is happening not what will or should happen.

            https://traderfeed.blogspot.com/2025/03/the-psychology-of-playing-big-market.html

 

            Investors are demanding a higher risk premium as uncertainty spikes.

            https://www.capitalspectator.com/equities-demand-higher-risk-premium-as-uncertainty-spikes/

 

            The latest from JP Morgan.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/tactical-tariff-thoughts-must-read-april-2-primer-jpmorgans-trading-desk

 

            Too many uncomfortable things are converging.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/too-many-uncomfortable-things-are-converging

 

            Negative earnings revisions hit decade high.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/fundamentals-dont-lie-negative-revisions-hit-decade-highs

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

What I am reading today

 

            Europe: why crisis and decline lie ahead.

            https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2025/03/satyajit-das-european-mirages-why-crises-and-decline-lies-ahead.html

 

 

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