Investing for Survival

Note: the S&P traded back below its 50 DMA, voiding Monday’s break. If it can hold above that new higher lower I mentioned yesterday, it would be a positive. Otherwise, the short term bias becomes to the downside.

Stock performance at the September triple witching.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/triple-witching-looms-market-has-done-79-time-last-32-years

Fundamental

Headlines

The Economy

Weekly mortgage applications fell 0.8% while purchase applications were up 1.3%.

Month to date retail chain store sales grew slightly faster than in the prior week.

August CPI was up 0.6%, in line; core CPI was up 0.3% versus +0.2%.

https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/us-cpi-surges-more-expected-august

International

The July UK GDP growth was -0.5% versus estimates of -0.2%; July industrial production was down 0.7% versus -0.6%; the July trade balance was L-3.5 billion versus L-4.2 billion.

July EU industrial production declined 1.1% versus projections of -0.7%.

Other

Fiscal Policy

Despite tax hikes, government revenue is down.

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/despite-federal-tax-hikes-revenues-are-way-down-here-are-5-reasons-why

Inflation

Home price growth rebounded in July.

https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2023/09/corelogic-us-annual-home-price-growth.html

Recession

US trade with the world continues to shrink.

https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2023/09/us-trade-with-world-shrinks-again.html

Real household income slid for the third year in a row.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/us-real-household-incomes-slide-3rd-year-row-white-incomes-slide-black-hispanics-rise

And Jamie Dimon not so upbeat.

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/americans-are-making-huge-mistake-believe-certain-booming-economy-narratives-jamie-dimon

Government Shutdown

The house is back in session; let the fun begin.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/kevin-mccarthy-faces-perfect-storm-demands-shutdown-looms-rcna104490

Geopolitics

Three new admissions on Ukraine.

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/three-deep-state-admissions-ukraine-emerge-week

Blinken okays attack on Russia using US missiles.

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/blinken-oks-attacks-russia-us-missiles

Zelensky issues veiled threat.

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/zelensky-issues-veiled-threat-destabilize-europe-if-weapons-flow-curtailed

The Coronavirus

The CIA bribed analysts to change their story on coronavirus origin.

https://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/cia-bribed-analysts-change-lab-leak-conclusions-senior-level-whistleblower

Bottom line

Current yields continue to show signs of peaking.

https://www.capitalspectator.com/desperately-seeking-yield-12-september-2023/

US companies are betting yields are peaking.

https://www.ft.com/content/3846fc4a-c2b3-405c-80ae-d7ef1e5f4bf4

Profit margins continue to defy skeptics.

https://www.tker.co/p/profit-margins-defy-expectations

News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

What I am reading today

How to lead a visionary life.

https://traderfeed.blogspot.com/2023/09/how-to-lead-visionary-life.html

Visit Investing for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home) to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber Service.

Tuesday, September 12, 2023

The Morning Call--An important shift in the Fed officials rate stance is underway

The Morning Call

9/12/23

The Market

Technical

Monday in the charts.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/big-tech-best-bitcoin-battered-event-risk-ridden-week-looms

Note: the S&P closed back above its 50 DMA. If it finishes there today, the DMA will reset to support; plus the S&P will have marked a new higher low. Both would be indicative of further upside.

It’s about to get rocky.

https://www.riskhedge.com/outplacement/its-about-to-get-rocky/rcm

VIX seasonality starts now.

https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/3-charts-we-are-watching-remember-vix-seasonality-starts-now

The strength in commodities.

https://allstarcharts.com/commodities-provide-more-than-just-information/

Fundamental

Headlines

The Economy

The August small business optimism index was reported at 91.3 versus predictions of 91.6.

International

July UK average earnings (3mo/YoY) were up 8.5% versus consensus of +8.2%; the July unemployment rate was 4.3%, in line.

August German PPI rose 0.2% versus expectations of +0.4%; the September economic sentiment index came in at -11.4 versus -15.0; the current conditions index was -79.4 versus -75.0.

The September EU economic sentiment index was -8.9 versus estimates of -6.2.

Other

Update on real total net worth per capita.

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2023/09/08/household-net-worth-q2-2023

Leading index of commercial real estate down in August.

https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2023/09/leading-index-for-commercial-real.html

The Fed

An important shift in the Fed officials rate stance is underway---this from the Fed whisperer (must read).

https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/an-important-shift-in-fed-officials-rate-stance-is-under-way-70a91f8a?mod=economy_lead_pos2

Fiscal Policy

The surprising trend in Medicare expenditures.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/09/05/upshot/medicare-budget-threat-receded.html?utm_campaign=What%20I%20Am%20Reading&utm_medium=email&_hsmi=273603921&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-8KdMQOpFTjDteFBQ_I_Hq0dKYjyAyyo3IOp-EkZ8WHVPgkrG7qpATD1tf4mgA-FESLK-aX7_3er8mHUL8aMNgezGJ58Q&utm_content=273603921&utm_source=hs_email

Inflation

Oil prices, inflation and interest rates.

Oil Price Inflation & Interest Rates. What Is The Link? - RIA (realinvestmentadvice.com)

Recession

Three competitiveness takeaways from Jackson Hole.

https://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2023/09/11/three_competitiveness_takeaways_from_jackson_hole_978516.html

Another upbeat analysis from my favorite optimist.

https://scottgrannis.blogspot.com/2023/09/is-this-great-country-or-what.html

This analyst believes that sufficient evidence of recession is lacking.

https://econbrowser.com/archives/2023/09/kopitsian-and-other-recession-indicators

Bloomberg Pulse survey shows investors believe that consumer spending is about to hit a wall.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-09-11/us-consumer-is-likely-to-start-cutting-back-hurting-economy-and-stocks?srnd=premium&sref=loFkkPMQ

NY Fed survey equally disappointing.

https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/ny-fed-survey-finds-sharp-deterioration-household-finanancial-sentiment-long-term

The Financial System

What free money does to bank balance sheets.

https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2023/09/unrealized-losses-on-securities-held-by-banks-oh-dearie-the-whole-schmear-8-to-558-billion.html

Civil Strife

The decline of liberalism.

https://arnoldkling.substack.com/p/the-decline-of-liberalism

China

Xi’s tight control hampers economic growth.

https://www.wsj.com/world/china/xis-tight-control-hampers-stronger-response-to-chinas-slowdown-868ab454?mod=economy_lead_pos3

It is no longer a given that China will become the world's biggest economy.

https://www.ft.com/content/20a14331-d282-4039-97d2-71d777359733

Can the US and China avoid an armed conflict?

https://global-macro-monitor.com/2023/09/09/can-the-u-s-and-china-avoid-the-thucydidess-trap/

Bottom line

Why mega caps continue to dominate and the risks therein.

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2023/09/11/mega-cap-stocks-dominate-lance-roberts

Low NASDAQ equity risk premium is warning to investors.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/nosediving-nasdaq-equity-risk-premium-has-warning-traders

News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

Oracle press release (NYSE:ORCL): Q1 Non-GAAP EPS of $1.19 beats by $0.04.

Revenue of $12.45B (+8.7% Y/Y) misses by $20M, up 8% in constant currency.

Oracle (NYSE:ORCL) declares $0.40/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous

What I am reading today

The climate emergency is a hoax (must read)

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/climate-emergency-hoax

Tuesday morning humor.

https://babylonbee.com/news/best-questions-to-ask-your-husband-during-football-game

Quote of the day.

https://cafehayek.com/2023/09/quotation-of-the-day-4381.html

Visit Investing for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home) to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber Service.

Thursday, September 14, 2023

The Morning Call---Apparently, inflation is not in the rear view mirror

Wednesday, September 13, 2023

The Morning Call---Are yields peaking?

Tuesday, September 12, 2023

The Morning Call--An important shift in the Fed officials rate stance is underway

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