The Morning Call---Thoughts on yesterday's moonshot

 

The Morning Call

 

11/11/22

 

The Market

 

    Technical

 

            Thursday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fading-cpi-fedspeak-spark-panic-bid-stocks-bonds-bullion-dollar-crashes

 

Note: the good news about yesterday’s moonshot is that the S&P pushed through its 100 DMA; if it remains there through the close on Monday, it will revert from resistance to support. However, it is still in a short term downtrend whose upper boundary is ~4166. Another resistance level exists at the 200 DMA (~4082).  The bad news is that the S&P as well as virtually all the stocks in our Portfolios made big gap up opens^----which need to be filled. 

 

This maybe an extension of a seasonal rally and as such is tradeable---‘tradeable’ being the operative word.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fed-pivot-will-be-no-cure-stock-marketss-ills

 

            Bonus charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/beyondsuperlatives

                                                                                                                                  

                More ammo for the melt up.                                                            

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/market-explosion-sends-ctas-short-covering-frenzy-79bn-buy

 

            But Buffett isn’t buying.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/warren-buffett-still-isnt-buying-stocks-heres-why

 

            Gold breaks out. 

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/ctlwofkjyz

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

   The October budget deficit was $88 billion versus projections of $90  

                           billion.

 

                        International

 

September UK GDP declined 0.2% versus consensus of -0.5%; the September trade balance was L-3.2 billion versus L-6.8 billion; September industrial production was up 0.2% versus -0.2%.

 

 October Japanese PPI was 9.1% versus estimates of 8.8%.

 

October German CPI was 0.9%, in line.

 

                        Other

                        

                           Mortgage delinquencies declined in Q3.

                           https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2022/11/mba-mortgage-delinquencies-decrease-to.html

                                            

              Inflation

                

If yesterday’s CPI report marks a change in trend, then we have begun the search  for the answer to one of my macro questions: how deeply embedded is inflation? That said, we are only one day closer to the answer ; so, a little circumspection might be in order.  While the market is clearly getting jiggy with the report, that doesn’t mean that the inflation fight is over.  We (or the Fed) have no clue what the future course of inflation is or how the Fed will react.  Yes, yesterday could be the high and yes, inflation could be on its was to 2% over the next year.  But we need more information before drawing that conclusion.  On the other hand, this datapoint could very well provide additional strength for the Santa Claus rally.

https://www.capitalspectator.com/can-the-fed-tame-inflation-or-is-it-different-this-time/

 

The CPI in the charts.

https://econbrowser.com/archives/2022/11/cpi-inflation-below-expectations

 

Inflation is the only way out.

                https://blogs.tslombard.com/inflation_was_always_the_endgame

 

                Diesel prices are rising but will that continue?

                https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/10/business/energy-environment/diesel-prices-inflation.html

 

               Recession 

 

                 What happens when American’s cash runs out?

             https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2022-11-10/what-s-happening-in-the-world-economy-when-americans-cash-runs-        out?srnd=premium&sref=loFkkPMQ

           

                  Worries grow about corporate debt.

                  https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/10/business/economy/corporate-bonds-fed-interest-rates.html

 

              The coronavirus

 

                Sweden wins.

https://dailysceptic.org/2022/11/08/sweden-wins-country-that-refused-lockdown-and-kept-schools-open-has-lowest-pandemic-cumulative-   excess-mortality-  in-the-world/

 

 

     Bottom line

 

            The golden rule of personal finance.

            https://bestinterest.blog/golden-rule/

 

          Are FANG stocks dead?

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2022/11/10/are-the-fang-stocks-dead

 

            Four lessons from 2022.

            https://blog.validea.com/humbling-the-forecasters-learning-lessons/

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

What I am reading today

 

           

 

 

Visit Investing for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home) to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber Service.

 

 

 

The Morning Call---CPI comes in light

 

The Morning Call

 

11/10/22

 

 

The Market

         

    Technical

           

            Wednesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/meh-midterms-ftx-fiasco-spark-red-wave-across-stocks-crypto

 

                New concerns about falling Treasuries demand.

            https://www.aier.org/article/a-new-concern-falling-us-treasury-demand/

 

            3/10 yield curve stays negative.

            https://www.capitalspectator.com/macro-briefing-10-november-2022/

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

                        US

 

  Weekly initial jobless claims totaled 225,000 versus    expectations    of  220,000.

 

   October CPI came in at +0.4% versus consensus of +0.6%; core CPI was    +0.3% versus +0.5%.

                           https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/core-cpi-inches-lower-40-year-highs-real-wages-tumble-19th-straight-month

 

                        International

 

September Chinese YoY vehicle sales were up 6.9% versus forecasts of up 18.0%.

 

October Japanese YoY machine tool orders fell 5.4% versus estimates of up 1.2%.

 

                        Other

 

                          October per capita vehicle sales.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2022/11/08/vehicle-sales-per-capita-as-of-october-2022

 

            The Fed

 

              Some investors betting Fed could raise rates to two decades high.

              https://www.wsj.com/articles/some-investors-bet-fed-could-lift-rates-to-two-decade-high-11667945255?mod=hp_lead_pos5

 

            Inflation

 

              David Stockman makes the case for stagflation.

              https://brownstone.org/articles/the-post-lockdown-labor-market-weak-and-worsening/

 

              Energy bills in Europe soar.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/energy-bills-europe-are-90-higher-last-year

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              Europe doubles down on government spending.

              https://www.wsj.com/articles/europe-doubles-down-on-big-government-11667984528

 

     Bottomline

 

            Ten steps for surviving a bear market.

            https://wealthfoundme.com/season-22-episode-10-survivors-manual/

           

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

BlackRock (NYSE:BLK) declares $4.88/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.

What I am reading today

 

           

 

 

Visit Investing for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home) to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber Service.

 

 

 

The Morning Call---Monetary and fiscal policies are not in sync

 

The Morning Call

 

11/9/22

         

    Technical

 

            Tuesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/crypto-carnage-contagion-slams-stocks-bonds-bullion-surge-dollar-bulls-purge

 

Where next?

https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/c0wd4oy0jx

 

Buybacks are back.

https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/csvozgmx

 

            Strange things are occurring in the volatility indices.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/strange-things-are-afoot-vol-world-vixs-nasdaq-cousin-sends-ominous-signal

 

            When is the best time of day to trade an ETF.

            https://www.wsj.com/articles/etf-best-time-buy-11667510277?reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

 

            Japan’s waning appetite for Treasuries.

            https://www.wsj.com/articles/japans-waning-appetite-for-treasurys-fuels-anxiety-on-wall-street-11667879544

 

            A bottom in gold?

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/ctp6sxtl0g

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

Weekly mortgage applications fell 0.1% while purchase applications were up 1.3%.

 

Month to date retail chain store sales grew less rapidly than in the prior week.

 

                        International

 

                          October Chinese CPI was +0.1% versus estimates of +0.3%.

 

                        Other

 

                          US imports from China plummet in September.

                          https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2022/11/us-imports-from-china-plummet-in.html#.Y2qE6XbMKUk

                        

                           Europe’s energy crunch will trigger shortages in developing countries.

   https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-11-08/eu-energy-crisis-sparked-by-ukraine-war-to-create-blackouts-in-poor-   countries?srnd=premium&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

 

 

 

            The Fed

 

              The many ways that the Fed could be wrong.

              https://ritholtz.com/2022/11/the-many-ways-the-fomc-can-be-wrong/

 

              Monetary and fiscal policies are not in sync (must read).

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/left-hand-not-talking-right-hand-quantitative-tightening-federal-government-spending

 

            Inflation

 

              Framing lumber prices close to per-pandemic levels.

              https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2022/11/update-framing-lumber-prices-close-to.html

 

            Recession

 

              FedEx parking planes.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fedex-parks-planes-maersk-cancels-sails-world-trade-appears-be-rapidly-deteriorating

 

     Bottom line

 

            It is always different this time.

            https://alhambrapartners.com/2022/11/06/weekly-market-pulse-its-always-different-this-time/

 

            An analysis that will please the bulls.

            https://investorplace.com/hypergrowthinvesting/2022/11/3-charts-prove-why-now-is-the-time-to-buy-stocks/

 

            Is gridlock good for the Market?

            https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/is-gridlock-in-washington-bullish/

 

            Hedge funds shop for bargains in the corporate debt market.

            https://www.ft.com/content/fd75515d-8fb2-4c7e-b03d-f7a3bdc4f3bf

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

3M (NYSE:MMM) declares $1.49/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.

 

What I am reading today

 

           

                        Top US military commander warns that our capabilities are falling behind.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/political/big-one-coming-top-us-military-commander-warns-american-capabilities-sinking

 

Visit Investing for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home) to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber Service.

 

 

 

The Morning Call--Disappearing earnings

 

The Morning Call

 

11/8/22

 

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Monday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/midterms-loom-stocks-rally-everything-else-drops

 

            Brief reprieve or back to the bear market?

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2022/11/04/s-p-500-snapshot-brief-reprieve-but-back-to-the-bear

 

            A vote for ‘back to the bear market.’

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2022/11/07/what-to-watch-a-look-at-bear-market-rallies

 

            And another.

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2022/11/07/october-market-lows-and-the-end-of-bear-markets

 

            More speculation on whether the dollar has peaked.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/price-action-suggests-dollar-has-peaked-now

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

                                             

                        US

 

The October small business optimism index was reported at 91.3 versus estimates of 92.0.

 

                        International

 

Preliminary September Japanese leading economic indicators  were 97.4 versus expectations of 100.1.

 

September EU retail sales were up 0.4%, in line.

 

                        Other

 

                                  Update on big four economic indicators.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2022/11/07/the-big-four-economic-indicators-october-employment

 

                                  Early signs of a weakening in the jobs market.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2022/11/07/the-jobs-data-trend-is-durations-friend

 

                                  Update on four high frequency economic indicators.

                          https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2022/11/four-high-frequency-indicators-for.html

 

                The Fed

 

              The consequences of irresponsible monetary (and fiscal) policy (must read).

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/global-rate-hikes-smash-wall-debt-maturity

 

                Inflation

 

              The PMI-prices paid index suggests falling inflation.

              https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/pmi-prices-paid-indexes-predicting-falling-inflation/

 

                  Wholesale used car prices fell in October.

              https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2022/11/wholesale-used-car-prices-declined-in.html

 

                   Labor or capital driven inflation? (must read)

              https://ritholtz.com/2022/11/labor-or-capital-driven-inflation/

 

                Recession

 

              Investors are betting heavily on a ‘soft’ landing.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/equity-investors-are-betting-heavily-soft-landing-economy

 

                Fiscal Policy

 

              Republicans need a coherent economic policy.

              https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-11-03/midterm-elections-republicans-have-no-plan-to-fix-the-economy?leadSource=uverify%20wall&sref=loFkkPMQ

  

 

                  Another example of how bureaucracy only causes problems, not solves them.

             https://www.adamsmith.org/blog/45yw663hsf6yvjy1wx53xff6rl8sd1

 

      Bottom line

 

            Disappearing earnings.

            https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/disappearing-act-earnings?cmp=em-QYC

 

                Goldman cuts S&P earnings estimates.

            https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-11-07/goldman-cuts-s-p-500-earnings-estimate-citing-margin-headwinds?sref=loFkkPMQ

 

                        For the bears and all those who love to be depressed.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/no-no-no-no-no-no-no-no-no-no

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

What I am reading today

 

            The exceptions to your problems holds the key to your solutions.

            https://traderfeed.blogspot.com/2022/11/trading-psychology-advice-3-solution.html

 

Visit Investing for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home) to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber Service.