The Morning Call
11/11/22
The
Market
Technical
Thursday in the charts.
Note: the good
news about yesterday’s moonshot is that the S&P pushed through its 100 DMA;
if it remains there through the close on Monday, it will revert from resistance
to support. However, it is still in a short term downtrend whose upper boundary
is ~4166. Another resistance level exists at the 200 DMA (~4082). The bad news is that the S&P as well as
virtually all the stocks in our Portfolios made big gap up opens----which
need to be filled.
This maybe an
extension of a seasonal rally and as such is tradeable---‘tradeable’ being the
operative word.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fed-pivot-will-be-no-cure-stock-marketss-ills
Bonus charts.
https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/beyondsuperlatives
More ammo for the melt up.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/market-explosion-sends-ctas-short-covering-frenzy-79bn-buy
But Buffett isn’t
buying.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/warren-buffett-still-isnt-buying-stocks-heres-why
Gold breaks out.
https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/ctlwofkjyz
Fundamental
Headlines
The
Economy
US
The October budget deficit was $88 billion
versus projections of $90
billion.
International
September UK GDP declined
0.2% versus consensus of -0.5%; the September trade balance was L-3.2 billion
versus L-6.8 billion; September industrial production was up 0.2% versus -0.2%.
October Japanese PPI was 9.1% versus estimates
of 8.8%.
October German CPI
was 0.9%, in line.
Other
Mortgage delinquencies declined in Q3.
https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2022/11/mba-mortgage-delinquencies-decrease-to.html
Inflation
If yesterday’s CPI
report marks a change in trend, then we have begun the search for the answer to one of my macro questions:
how deeply embedded is inflation? That said, we are only one day closer to the
answer ; so, a little circumspection might be in order. While the market is clearly getting jiggy
with the report, that doesn’t mean that the inflation fight is over. We (or the Fed) have no clue what the future
course of inflation is or how the Fed will react. Yes, yesterday could be the high and yes,
inflation could be on its was to 2% over the next year. But we need more information before drawing
that conclusion. On the other hand, this
datapoint could very well provide additional strength for the Santa Claus
rally.
https://www.capitalspectator.com/can-the-fed-tame-inflation-or-is-it-different-this-time/
The
CPI in the charts.
https://econbrowser.com/archives/2022/11/cpi-inflation-below-expectations
Inflation
is the only way out.
https://blogs.tslombard.com/inflation_was_always_the_endgame
Diesel prices are rising but will that continue?
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/10/business/energy-environment/diesel-prices-inflation.html
Recession
What happens when American’s cash runs out?
Worries grow about corporate debt.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/10/business/economy/corporate-bonds-fed-interest-rates.html
The coronavirus
Sweden wins.
Bottom line
The golden rule of
personal finance.
https://bestinterest.blog/golden-rule/
Are FANG stocks dead?
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2022/11/10/are-the-fang-stocks-dead
Four lessons from 2022.
https://blog.validea.com/humbling-the-forecasters-learning-lessons/
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
What
I am reading today
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