Friday, November 11, 2022

The Morning Call---Thoughts on yesterday's moonshot

 

The Morning Call

 

11/11/22

 

The Market

 

    Technical

 

            Thursday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fading-cpi-fedspeak-spark-panic-bid-stocks-bonds-bullion-dollar-crashes

 

Note: the good news about yesterday’s moonshot is that the S&P pushed through its 100 DMA; if it remains there through the close on Monday, it will revert from resistance to support. However, it is still in a short term downtrend whose upper boundary is ~4166. Another resistance level exists at the 200 DMA (~4082).  The bad news is that the S&P as well as virtually all the stocks in our Portfolios made big gap up opens----which need to be filled. 

 

This maybe an extension of a seasonal rally and as such is tradeable---‘tradeable’ being the operative word.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fed-pivot-will-be-no-cure-stock-marketss-ills

 

            Bonus charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/beyondsuperlatives

                                                                                                                                  

                More ammo for the melt up.                                                            

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/market-explosion-sends-ctas-short-covering-frenzy-79bn-buy

 

            But Buffett isn’t buying.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/warren-buffett-still-isnt-buying-stocks-heres-why

 

            Gold breaks out. 

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/ctlwofkjyz

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

   The October budget deficit was $88 billion versus projections of $90  

                           billion.

 

                        International

 

September UK GDP declined 0.2% versus consensus of -0.5%; the September trade balance was L-3.2 billion versus L-6.8 billion; September industrial production was up 0.2% versus -0.2%.

 

 October Japanese PPI was 9.1% versus estimates of 8.8%.

 

October German CPI was 0.9%, in line.

 

                        Other

                        

                           Mortgage delinquencies declined in Q3.

                           https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2022/11/mba-mortgage-delinquencies-decrease-to.html

                                            

              Inflation

                

If yesterday’s CPI report marks a change in trend, then we have begun the search  for the answer to one of my macro questions: how deeply embedded is inflation? That said, we are only one day closer to the answer ; so, a little circumspection might be in order.  While the market is clearly getting jiggy with the report, that doesn’t mean that the inflation fight is over.  We (or the Fed) have no clue what the future course of inflation is or how the Fed will react.  Yes, yesterday could be the high and yes, inflation could be on its was to 2% over the next year.  But we need more information before drawing that conclusion.  On the other hand, this datapoint could very well provide additional strength for the Santa Claus rally.

https://www.capitalspectator.com/can-the-fed-tame-inflation-or-is-it-different-this-time/

 

The CPI in the charts.

https://econbrowser.com/archives/2022/11/cpi-inflation-below-expectations

 

Inflation is the only way out.

                https://blogs.tslombard.com/inflation_was_always_the_endgame

 

                Diesel prices are rising but will that continue?

                https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/10/business/energy-environment/diesel-prices-inflation.html

 

               Recession 

 

                 What happens when American’s cash runs out?

             https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2022-11-10/what-s-happening-in-the-world-economy-when-americans-cash-runs-        out?srnd=premium&sref=loFkkPMQ

           

                  Worries grow about corporate debt.

                  https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/10/business/economy/corporate-bonds-fed-interest-rates.html

 

              The coronavirus

 

                Sweden wins.

https://dailysceptic.org/2022/11/08/sweden-wins-country-that-refused-lockdown-and-kept-schools-open-has-lowest-pandemic-cumulative-   excess-mortality-  in-the-world/

 

 

     Bottom line

 

            The golden rule of personal finance.

            https://bestinterest.blog/golden-rule/

 

          Are FANG stocks dead?

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2022/11/10/are-the-fang-stocks-dead

 

            Four lessons from 2022.

            https://blog.validea.com/humbling-the-forecasters-learning-lessons/

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

What I am reading today

 

           

 

 

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