The Morning Call--All clear?

 

The Morning Call

 

2/3/22

 

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Wednesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/paypal-pukes-google-gains-crypto-crokes-dollar-dumps

 

            These five charts reveal much about the Market.

            https://www.riskhedge.com/outplacement/5-charts-reveal-everything-about-the-stock-market/rcm

 

            Bond/equity fear ‘divide’ is back.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/cz4tbgbqox

 

            All clear?

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/authers-be-warned-turbulence-time-different

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

                          Weekly jobless claims were 238,000 versus expectations of 245.000.

 

Preliminary Q4 nonfarm productivity was up 6.6% versus forecasts of +3.2%; unit labor costs rose 0.3% versus +1.5%.

 

                        International

 

                          December EU PPI was +2.9% versus projections of +2.8%.

 

The final January Japanese services PMI was 47.6 versus estimates of 46.6; the composite PMI was 49.9 versus 48.8; the final January German services PMI was 52.2 , in line; the composite PMI was 53.8 versus 54.2; the final January EU services PMI was 51.1 versus 51.2; the composite PMI was 52.3 versus 52.4; the final January UK services PMI was 54.1 versus 53.3; the composite PMI was 54.2 versus 53.4.

 

                        Other

 

                          Business cycle indicators at the beginning of February.

                          https://econbrowser.com/archives/2022/02/business-cycle-indicators-at-the-start-of-february

 

                          Recession risk returning?

                          https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/recessionrisk

 

            The Fed

 

              Credit continues to ease.

              https://econbrowser.com/archives/2022/02/the-asset-side-of-the-feds-balance-sheet-and-credit-easing-to-date

 

              ECB reiterates pledge to withdraw stimulus gradually.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/despite-record-inflation-ecb-reiterates-pledge-withdraw-stimulus-gradually

 

              Bank of England raises rates and ends QE.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/pound-surges-after-bank-england-ends-qe-raises-rates-05-four-voting-50bps-hike

 

            Inflation

 

              Will oil prices continue to rise?

              https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/02/business/economy/oil-price.html

 

            Geopolitics

 

              US deploys troops to NATO’s eastern flank.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/biden-orders-3000-troops-deployed-nato-eastern-flank-countries

 

            The coronavirus

 

Studies show lockdowns impose enormous economic and social costs with little benefit to public health.

https://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/lockdowns-imposed-enormous-economic-social-costs-had-little-no-public-health-effects-new

 

     Bottom line.

 

            What could go right?

            https://www.linkedin.com/in/edward-yardeni/detail/recent-activity/

 

            Return of capital versus return on capital.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/return-capital-takes-center-stage-return-capital

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

Illinois Tool Works press release (NYSE:ITW): Q4 GAAP EPS of $1.93 beats by $0.03.

Revenue of $3.7B (+5.7% Y/Y) beats by $150M.

W.W. Grainger press release (NYSE:GWW): Q4 Non-GAAP EPS of $5.44 beats by $0.21.

Revenue of $3.36B (+14.3% Y/Y) beats by $100M.

 

Cummins press release (NYSE:CMI): Q4 GAAP EPS of $2.73 misses by $0.41.

Revenue of $5.9B (+1.2% Y/Y) beats by $90M.

 

Becton, Dickinson press release (NYSE:BDX): Q1 Non-GAAP EPS of $3.64 beats by $0.79.

GAAP Revenue of $5B (-6.0% Y/Y) beats by $240M.

 

Qualcomm press release (NASDAQ:QCOM): Q1 Non-GAAP EPS of $3.23 beats by $0.23.

Revenue of $10.7B (+29.9% Y/Y) beats by $270M.

 

What I am reading today

 

            How Tom Brady made greatness routine.

            https://www.si.com/nfl/2022/02/01/tom-brady-retires-nfl-what-made-him-great

 

 

 

Visit Investing for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home) to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber Service.

 

 

 

The Morning Call---Different this time?

 

The Morning Call

 

2/2/22

 

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Tuesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stocks-shrug-bullard-bad-data-bbb-bust-dollar-drops

 

            Are we there yet?

            https://alhambrapartners.com/2022/01/30/weekly-market-pulse-are-we-there-yet/

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

                           

Weekly mortgage applications rose 12.0% while purchase applications were up 4.0%.

 

                            Month to date retail store sales grew at the same pace as the prior week.

 

                            December construction spending was up 0.2% versus forecasts of +0.6%.

                            https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2022/02/construction-spending-increased-02-in.html

 

December job openings (JOLTS) report showed a total of 10.9 million versus expectations of 10.3 million.

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2022/02/01/december-job-openings-labor-turnover-little-changed-from-november

 

The final January manufacturing PMI was 55.5 versus projections of 55.0.

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2022/02/01/january-markit-services-pmi-lowest-since-oct-2020

 

The January ISM manufacturing index was 57.6 versus estimates of 57.5.

                            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2022/02/01/january-ism-manufacturing-index-sector-remains-demand-driven

 

The January ADP private payroll report showed total jobs fell 301,000 versus predictions of a 207,000 increase.

https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/adp-signals-biggest-monthly-job-loss-2020-covid-lockdowns

                                                      

 

                                                      

                        International

 

                          The January flash EU CPI was +0.3% versus consensus of -0.3%.

 

                        Other

 

                          December median household income.

                          https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2022/02/median-household-income-in-december-2021.html#.Yfl4y-rMKUk

 

            The Fed

 

Fed officials make it clear that this time is different (yeah, right. If the Market takes a big dive, the guys will fold like a cheap tent).

              https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/31/business/economy/fed-inflation-economy.html

 

              This analyst agrees that this time is different.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fed-put-powell-repealing-it

 

              Markets expect at least two ECB rate hikes this year.

              https://www.ft.com/content/304c8a23-aa5d-44a3-8903-bfd6f1e2b12a

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              US debt hits $30 trillion.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/us-debt-hits-30-trillion-first-time

 

            Inflation

 

              Rents increasing sharply YoY.

              https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2022/02/rents-still-increasing-sharply-year.html

 

              Meatflation.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/meatflation-stick-around-us-cattle-herds-drop-amid-severe-drought

 

     Bottom line.

 

            Waiting for the ‘fat pitch’.

            https://americanconsequences.com/steve-sjuggerud-when-life-gives-me-a-fat-pitch/

 

            John Mauldin’s thoughts on 2022.

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2022/01/28/so-goes-the-year

 

            Multiple compression?

            https://howardlindzon.com/multiple-compression-what-next/

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

AbbVie press release (NYSE:ABBV): Q4 Non-GAAP EPS of $3.31 beats by $0.03.

Revenue of $14.89B (+7.4% Y/Y) misses by $70M.

 

C.H. Robinson Worldwide press release (NASDAQ:CHRW): Q4 GAAP EPS of $1.74 misses by $0.13.

Revenue of $6.5B (+42.9% Y/Y) beats by $240M.

 

Emerson Electric press release (NYSE:EMR): Q1 Non-GAAP EPS of $1.05 beats by $0.04.

Revenue of $4.5B (+8% Y/Y) beats by $20M.

Emerson Electric (NYSE:EMR) declares $0.515/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.

 

Becton, Dickinson and Company's (NYSE:BDX) board approved the spinoff of its diabetes care business, which will be known as Embecta, and declared a pro rata distribution of Embecta shares of to BDX shareholders.

 

The board voted unanimously to approve the spinoff to occur on Apr. 1, concluding that it is consistent with BDX's growth strategy and helps sharpen its focus on core innovation priorities.

 

FactSet Research Systems (NYSE:FDS) declares $0.82/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.

 

What I am reading today

 

            Five common assumptions about retirement that are wrong.

            https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/personalfinance/retirement/2022/01/30/5-things-people-get-wrong-about-retirement/49726229/

 

                        Bitcoin is a poor medium of exchange but a great store of value.

            https://www.pragcap.com/bitcoin-is-a-terrible-form-of-money-but-a-very-good-store-of-value/

 

 

Visit Investing for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home) to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber Service.

 

 

 

The Morning Call--Market bottom?

 

The Morning Call

 

2/1/22

 

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Monday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/nasdaq-crashes-worst-january-ever-rate-hike-odds-soar

 

            Market bottom?

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/market-bottom-it-or-more-downside-coming

 

            Do you sell the rip?

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/violentrip

 

            Small options traders more panicked than during the pandemic.

            https://sentimentrader.com/blog/small-options-traders-more-panicked-now-than-during-the-pandemic/

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

                          The January Chicago Fed PMI was 65.2 versus expectations of 61.7.

 

                          The January Dallas Fed manufacturing index was 2 versus estimates of 8.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2022/01/31/january-dallas-fed-manufacturing-expansion-moderates

 

                        International

 

December German retail sales  declined 5.5% versus projections of -1.4%; the January unemployment rate was 5.1% versus 5.2%; the final January manufacturing PMI was 59.8 versus 60.5.

 

The December EU unemployment rate was 7.0% versus consensus of 7.1%; the final January manufacturing PMI was 58.7 versus 59.0.

 

The final January Japanese manufacturing PMI was 55.4 versus forecasts of 54.6; the final January UK manufacturing PMI was 57.3 versus 56.9

 

                        Other

 

                          Update on housing inventory.

                          https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2022/01/housing-inventory-january-31st-update.html

 

                          European government debt grew during pandemic.

                          https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/how-european-government-debt-grew-during-pandemic

 

            The Fed

 

              Is fine tuning monetary policy that effective?

              https://duncanweldon.substack.com/p/its-all-relative

 

              M2 and nominal GDP growth update (must read).

              http://scottgrannis.blogspot.com/2022/01/m2-and-nominal-gdp-update-still-growing.html

 

              What happens when the Fed finally tightens?

              https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2022/01/31/fed-rate-hikes-risks-of-financial-instability-part-ii

 

              The Bank of England leads the way toward tightening.

              https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-01-31/boe-s-first-back-to-back-hikes-in-17-years-may-just-be-the-start?sref=loFkkPMQ

 

            Inflation

 

This commentary is too apocalyptic for me, but it does highlight a problem we will soon be facing.

https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/farming-insider-warns-coming-food-shortages-are-going-be-far-worse-were-being-told

 

              Inflation coming to your closet.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/inflation-comes-your-closet-cotton-prices-hit-decade-high-amid-global-deficit

 

            Geopolitics

 

              More on the US/Russia/Ukraine faceoff.

              https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2022/01/russia-ukraine-the-donkey-turd-bomb-and-us-empire-in-europe-how-it-began-how-it-is-ending.html

 

            China

 

              It is China, not Russia.

              https://www.institutionalinvestor.com/article/b1wjc9ghx1pwjj/These-Are-the-Real-Geopolitical-Tensions-Behind-the-Markets

 

     Bottom line.

 

            It is not over yet.

            https://thereformedbroker.com/2022/01/31/its-not-over-yet-2/

 

            The price of admission.

            https://compoundadvisors.com/2022/the-price-of-admission-in-stocks

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

Exxon Mobil press release (NYSE:XOM): Q4 Non-GAAP EPS of $2.05 beats by $0.11.

Revenue of $84.97B (+82.6% Y/Y) beats by $390M.

 

UPS press release (NYSE:UPS): Q4 Non-GAAP EPS of $3.59 beats by $0.49.

Revenue of $27.77B (+11.5% Y/Y) beats by $700M.

 

UPS (NYSE:UPS) declares $1.52/share quarterly dividend, 49% increase from prior dividend of $1.02.

 

ATT spins off Time Warner and cuts dividend. In this transaction, ATT receives $43 billion which is roughly $6/share. So, any adjustments in yield have to take this into consideration.

      https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/att-slides-after-slashing-dividend-unveiling-warner-media-spinoff

 

 

What I am reading today

 

           

                        How to change your life.

            http://traderfeed.blogspot.com/2022/01/how-to-change-your-life.html

 

            Quote of the day.

            https://cafehayek.com/2022/01/quotation-of-the-day-3787.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email

 

 

Visit Investing for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home) to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber Service.