The Morning Call--Market bottom?

 

The Morning Call

 

2/1/22

 

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Monday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/nasdaq-crashes-worst-january-ever-rate-hike-odds-soar

 

            Market bottom?

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/market-bottom-it-or-more-downside-coming

 

            Do you sell the rip?

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/violentrip

 

            Small options traders more panicked than during the pandemic.

            https://sentimentrader.com/blog/small-options-traders-more-panicked-now-than-during-the-pandemic/

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

                          The January Chicago Fed PMI was 65.2 versus expectations of 61.7.

 

                          The January Dallas Fed manufacturing index was 2 versus estimates of 8.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2022/01/31/january-dallas-fed-manufacturing-expansion-moderates

 

                        International

 

December German retail sales  declined 5.5% versus projections of -1.4%; the January unemployment rate was 5.1% versus 5.2%; the final January manufacturing PMI was 59.8 versus 60.5.

 

The December EU unemployment rate was 7.0% versus consensus of 7.1%; the final January manufacturing PMI was 58.7 versus 59.0.

 

The final January Japanese manufacturing PMI was 55.4 versus forecasts of 54.6; the final January UK manufacturing PMI was 57.3 versus 56.9

 

                        Other

 

                          Update on housing inventory.

                          https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2022/01/housing-inventory-january-31st-update.html

 

                          European government debt grew during pandemic.

                          https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/how-european-government-debt-grew-during-pandemic

 

            The Fed

 

              Is fine tuning monetary policy that effective?

              https://duncanweldon.substack.com/p/its-all-relative

 

              M2 and nominal GDP growth update (must read).

              http://scottgrannis.blogspot.com/2022/01/m2-and-nominal-gdp-update-still-growing.html

 

              What happens when the Fed finally tightens?

              https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2022/01/31/fed-rate-hikes-risks-of-financial-instability-part-ii

 

              The Bank of England leads the way toward tightening.

              https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-01-31/boe-s-first-back-to-back-hikes-in-17-years-may-just-be-the-start?sref=loFkkPMQ

 

            Inflation

 

This commentary is too apocalyptic for me, but it does highlight a problem we will soon be facing.

https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/farming-insider-warns-coming-food-shortages-are-going-be-far-worse-were-being-told

 

              Inflation coming to your closet.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/inflation-comes-your-closet-cotton-prices-hit-decade-high-amid-global-deficit

 

            Geopolitics

 

              More on the US/Russia/Ukraine faceoff.

              https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2022/01/russia-ukraine-the-donkey-turd-bomb-and-us-empire-in-europe-how-it-began-how-it-is-ending.html

 

            China

 

              It is China, not Russia.

              https://www.institutionalinvestor.com/article/b1wjc9ghx1pwjj/These-Are-the-Real-Geopolitical-Tensions-Behind-the-Markets

 

     Bottom line.

 

            It is not over yet.

            https://thereformedbroker.com/2022/01/31/its-not-over-yet-2/

 

            The price of admission.

            https://compoundadvisors.com/2022/the-price-of-admission-in-stocks

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

Exxon Mobil press release (NYSE:XOM): Q4 Non-GAAP EPS of $2.05 beats by $0.11.

Revenue of $84.97B (+82.6% Y/Y) beats by $390M.

 

UPS press release (NYSE:UPS): Q4 Non-GAAP EPS of $3.59 beats by $0.49.

Revenue of $27.77B (+11.5% Y/Y) beats by $700M.

 

UPS (NYSE:UPS) declares $1.52/share quarterly dividend, 49% increase from prior dividend of $1.02.

 

ATT spins off Time Warner and cuts dividend. In this transaction, ATT receives $43 billion which is roughly $6/share. So, any adjustments in yield have to take this into consideration.

      https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/att-slides-after-slashing-dividend-unveiling-warner-media-spinoff

 

 

What I am reading today

 

           

                        How to change your life.

            http://traderfeed.blogspot.com/2022/01/how-to-change-your-life.html

 

            Quote of the day.

            https://cafehayek.com/2022/01/quotation-of-the-day-3787.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email

 

 

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