Thursday, February 3, 2022

The Morning Call--All clear?

 

The Morning Call

 

2/3/22

 

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Wednesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/paypal-pukes-google-gains-crypto-crokes-dollar-dumps

 

            These five charts reveal much about the Market.

            https://www.riskhedge.com/outplacement/5-charts-reveal-everything-about-the-stock-market/rcm

 

            Bond/equity fear ‘divide’ is back.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/cz4tbgbqox

 

            All clear?

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/authers-be-warned-turbulence-time-different

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

                          Weekly jobless claims were 238,000 versus expectations of 245.000.

 

Preliminary Q4 nonfarm productivity was up 6.6% versus forecasts of +3.2%; unit labor costs rose 0.3% versus +1.5%.

 

                        International

 

                          December EU PPI was +2.9% versus projections of +2.8%.

 

The final January Japanese services PMI was 47.6 versus estimates of 46.6; the composite PMI was 49.9 versus 48.8; the final January German services PMI was 52.2 , in line; the composite PMI was 53.8 versus 54.2; the final January EU services PMI was 51.1 versus 51.2; the composite PMI was 52.3 versus 52.4; the final January UK services PMI was 54.1 versus 53.3; the composite PMI was 54.2 versus 53.4.

 

                        Other

 

                          Business cycle indicators at the beginning of February.

                          https://econbrowser.com/archives/2022/02/business-cycle-indicators-at-the-start-of-february

 

                          Recession risk returning?

                          https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/recessionrisk

 

            The Fed

 

              Credit continues to ease.

              https://econbrowser.com/archives/2022/02/the-asset-side-of-the-feds-balance-sheet-and-credit-easing-to-date

 

              ECB reiterates pledge to withdraw stimulus gradually.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/despite-record-inflation-ecb-reiterates-pledge-withdraw-stimulus-gradually

 

              Bank of England raises rates and ends QE.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/pound-surges-after-bank-england-ends-qe-raises-rates-05-four-voting-50bps-hike

 

            Inflation

 

              Will oil prices continue to rise?

              https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/02/business/economy/oil-price.html

 

            Geopolitics

 

              US deploys troops to NATO’s eastern flank.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/biden-orders-3000-troops-deployed-nato-eastern-flank-countries

 

            The coronavirus

 

Studies show lockdowns impose enormous economic and social costs with little benefit to public health.

https://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/lockdowns-imposed-enormous-economic-social-costs-had-little-no-public-health-effects-new

 

     Bottom line.

 

            What could go right?

            https://www.linkedin.com/in/edward-yardeni/detail/recent-activity/

 

            Return of capital versus return on capital.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/return-capital-takes-center-stage-return-capital

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

Illinois Tool Works press release (NYSE:ITW): Q4 GAAP EPS of $1.93 beats by $0.03.

Revenue of $3.7B (+5.7% Y/Y) beats by $150M.

W.W. Grainger press release (NYSE:GWW): Q4 Non-GAAP EPS of $5.44 beats by $0.21.

Revenue of $3.36B (+14.3% Y/Y) beats by $100M.

 

Cummins press release (NYSE:CMI): Q4 GAAP EPS of $2.73 misses by $0.41.

Revenue of $5.9B (+1.2% Y/Y) beats by $90M.

 

Becton, Dickinson press release (NYSE:BDX): Q1 Non-GAAP EPS of $3.64 beats by $0.79.

GAAP Revenue of $5B (-6.0% Y/Y) beats by $240M.

 

Qualcomm press release (NASDAQ:QCOM): Q1 Non-GAAP EPS of $3.23 beats by $0.23.

Revenue of $10.7B (+29.9% Y/Y) beats by $270M.

 

What I am reading today

 

            How Tom Brady made greatness routine.

            https://www.si.com/nfl/2022/02/01/tom-brady-retires-nfl-what-made-him-great

 

 

 

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