The Morning Call
7/31/24
The
Market
Technical
Tuesday in the
charts.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bonds-bullion-bid-crude-crypto-mega-cap-skid-ahead-fedboj
Tech stocks poised
for a comeback.
More on the
Market’s behavior following a rate cut.
Fundamental
Headlines
The
Economy
US
Weekly mortgage applications
fell 3.9% while purchase applications were down 1.5%.
Month to date retail chain store sales grew
slower than in the prior week.
The May Case
Shiller home price index was flat with April versus estimates of a 0.2% increase.
https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2024/07/comments-on-may-case-shiller-house.html
June Job Openings
(JOLTS report) totaled 8.15 million versus projections of 8.0 million.
The July consumer
confidence index was 100.3 versus consensus of 99.7; but it wouldn’t have
happened without some government trickeration.
https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/conference-board-consumer-confidence-revised-down-again
The July ADP
private payroll report showed an increase in jobs of 122,000 versus
expectations of 150,000.
https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/adp-employment-report-weakest-january-wage-inflation-slows
International
June Japanese
preliminary industrial production declined 3.6% versus forecasts of -4.8%; June
retail sales were up 0.6% versus +0.4%; June YoY housing starts declined 6.7%
versus -2.0%; June YoY construction orders were down 19.7% versus +5.0%; the
July consumer confidence index was 36.7 versus 36.5.
The July Chinese manufacturing
PMI came in at 49.4 versus predictions of 49.2; the July nonmanufacturing PMI
was 50.2, in line; the July composite PMI was 50.2 versus 50.1.
The July German
unemployment rate was 6.0%, in line.
The July flash EU CPI
was flat with June versus estimates of -0.3%.
Other
Monetary
Policy
Bank of
Japan raises rates.
Inflation
Inflation expectations in the charts.
https://econbrowser.com/archives/2024/07/inflation-expectations-in-july-and-june
The last mile (must read).
Recession
The probability of recession in the charts.
https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2024/07/triple-top-developing-for-us-recession.html
The yield curve is close to dis-inverting
with the jury still out on recession.
This analyst thinks that the jury isn’t out, i.e.,
no recession.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/yield-curve-dis-inversion-obscures-odds-soft-landing
Is the labor market about to crack?
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/30/business/economy/labor-market-federal-reserve.html
Geopolitics
Five takeaways from Israel’s assassination of
Hamas leader.
Russian troops breakthrough in Donetsk.
Bottom line.
Ned Davis Research
believes that the bull market extends into 2025.
Wealthy investors
driving surging demand for gold.
https://www.ft.com/content/a959c874-dd16-4e32-807e-78ff88d8fa7f
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
Illinois
Tool Works press release (NYSE:ITW): Q2 GAAP EPS
of $2.54 beats by $0.07.
Revenue
of $4.03B (-1.0% Y/Y) misses by $50M.
Microsoft press release (NASDAQ:MSFT): Q4 GAAP
EPS of $2.95 beats by $0.02.
Revenue
of $64.7B (+15.1% Y/Y) beats by $260M.
T.
Rowe Price (NASDAQ:TROW)
declares $1.24/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.
Mastercard press release (NYSE:MA): Q2 Non-GAAP EPS of
$3.59 beats by $0.08.
Revenue
of $7B (+11.1% Y/Y) beats by $150M.
Automatic
Data Processing press release (NASDAQ:ADP): Q2 Non-GAAP EPS of
$2.09 beats by $0.03.
Revenue
of $4.77B (+6.5% Y/Y) beats by $30M.
Altria press release (NYSE:MO): Q2 Non-GAAP EPS of
$1.31 misses by $0.03.
Revenue
of $5.28B, net of excise taxes, (-3.0% Y/Y) misses by $110M.
What
I am reading today
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