The Morning Call---What are CTAs and why are they so important?

 

The Morning Call

 

12/1/23

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Thursday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/movember-marks-best-month-us-bonds-40-years-global-markets-add-over-11-trillion

 

            The latest from Goldman.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-most-asymmetric-basket-trade-market-right-now

 

            The mysterious explosion in gold prices.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/behind-mysterious-explosion-gold-prices-chinas-massive-accumulation-gold

           

            What are CTAs and why are they so important? (must read).

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/you-would-be-absolutely-shocked-how-large-their-positions-are-most-important-oil-traders

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

                          October pending home sales fell 1.5% versus estimates of -2.0%.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2023/11/30/pending-home-sales-fall-october-2023

 

                          The November Chicago PMI came in at 55.8 versus expectations of 45.4.

                           https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2023/11/30/chicago-pmi-jumps-to-17-month-high-in-november

 

                        International

 

Q3 Japanese YoY capital spending was up 3.4% versus projections of +2.1%; the October unemployment rate was 2.5% versus 2.6%.

 

The November Japanese manufacturing PMI was reported at 48.3 versus consensus of 48.1; the November Chinese Caixin manufacturing PMI was 50.7 versus 49.8; the November German manufacturing PMI was 42.6 versus 42.3; the November EU manufacturing PMI was 44.2 versus 43.8; the November UK manufacturing PMI was 47.2 versus 46.6.

 

                        Other

 

            The Fed

 

              Why are bank’s hoarding liquidity?

              https://www.ft.com/content/72f83310-aa35-4fad-b0ca-030d29b8a9cb

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              The failure of the SEC.

              https://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2023/11/30/danger_for_us_crypto_markets_rises_as_secs_credibility_falls_995734.html

 

              Another example of insider trading in congress.

              https://pjmedia.com/vodkapundit/2023/11/30/this-sneaky-senators-insider-trade-isnt-the-most-corrupt-part-of-this-story-n4924348

 

  No one wants to pay for the green transition.

  https://www.wsj.com/business/autos/why-no-one-wants-to-pay-for-the-green-transition-aed6ba74?mod=business_lead_pos5

 

Recession

 

  Global economic forecasts could miss the mark again.

  https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/too-soon-to-be-optimistic-about-world-economy-by-mohamed-a-el-erian-2023-11?utm_source=project-syndicate.org&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=authnote&

 

 

The Bond Market

 

  Rate cut expectations fuel the bond rally.

  https://www.capitalspectator.com/rate-cut-expectations-fuel-bond-market-rally/#more-21208

 

  But what are the conditions for those rate cuts?

  https://www.cnbc.com/2023/11/29/heres-what-it-would-take-for-the-fed-to-start-slashing-rates-in-2024.html

 

     Bottom line

 

            Optimism versus pessimism.

            https://blog.validea.com/optimism-vs-pessimism-defining-your-investing-future/

 

            This investor thinks that the top in growth stocks is near.

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/11/29/notable-investor-says-the-top-of-growth-stocks-is-coming-here-is-where-he-sees-opportunity.html?utm_campaign=What%20I%20Am%20Reading&utm_medium=email&_hsmi=284688516&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-8RYh5O-JoCYaLCqO4AFAP7wZ1F2DgMTiu1u6T9Gr7KWLOLrJI25X3GJtSuL0nYcyiVXGeTPzMuoBOS1NI9x8XVaNR3yg&utm_content=284688516&utm_source=hs_email

 

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

What I am reading today

 

            They are coming for your beef.

            https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2023/11/theyre-coming-for-your-beef.php

 

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