The Morning Call
11/30/23
The
Market
Technical
Wednesday in the charts.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bullion-bonds-bitcoin-black-gold-all-bid-rate-cut-hopes-ramp
The unemotional
seller.
https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/unemotional-seller
5400 and bust.
https://www.pringturner.com/the-bull-market-has-just-been-refreshed-where-does-it-go-from-here/
Fundamental
Headlines
The
Economy
US
Weekly initial
jobless claims totaled 218,000 versus estimates of 220,000.
The second
estimate for Q3 GDP growth was +5.2% versus consensus of +5.0%; for corporate
profit growth, it was +4.1% versus +0.4%; for the GDP price index, it was
+3.5%, in line; for real consumer spending, it was +3.6% versus +4.0%.
October personal income
was up 0.2%, in line; October personal spending was up 0.2%, also in line.
The October PCE
price index was flat versus projections of +0.1%; the core PCE price index was
up 0.2%, in line.
International
October Japanese
industrial production rose 1.0% versus forecasts of +0.8%; October retail sales
fell 1.6% versus +0.1%; October YoY housing starts were down 6.3% versus -6.8%;
October YoY construction orders were up 4.2% versus +1.1%; November consumer
confidence came in at 36.1 versus 35.6.
October German retail
sales were up 1.1% versus expectations of +0.4%; the November unemployment rate
was 5.9% versus 5.8%.
The November
Chinese manufacturing PMI was 49.4 versus predictions of 49.7; the November nonmanufacturing
PMI was 50.2 versus 51.5.
The November YoY EU flash CPI was up 2.4%
versus estimates of +2.7%; the core YoY flash CPI was +3.6% versus +3.9%; the November
unemployment rate was 6.5%, in line.
Other
Revised new home sales data.
https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2023/11/new-and-revised-data-suggests-possible.html
The latest GDP per capita data.
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2023/11/29/gdp-per-capita-vs-gdp
Recession
OECD says global economic growth will slow in
2024.
Latest Beige Book report reflects slowing
economy.
https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2023/11/feds-beige-book-economic-activity.html
Black Friday sales at major (non-online)
retailers disappointing.
The
Bond Market
Which is worse, higher deficits or higher
rates?
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/context-and-facts-expose-bearish-bond-narratives
Bottom line
Ackerman now
thinks that Fed will cut rates in Q1.
A new look a solving
wealth management’s biggest problem.
Good thing that they were wrong so often.
https://allstarcharts.com/good-thing-theyre-wrong-so-often/
How bullish should you be?
https://ritholtz.com/2023/11/how-bullish-were-you-in-2011/
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
What
I am reading today
Quote
of the day.
https://cafehayek.com/2023/11/quotation-of-the-day-4465.html
ESG: another one of those ideas
than don’t work.
https://www.adamsmith.org/blog/another-one-of-those-ideas-that-just-doesnt-work
How to fix your free throw shot.
https://www.wsj.com/sports/basketball/nba-free-throws-korean-bank-shots-6d00ee3d
Who
gets to claim the world’s richest shipwreck?
Who
gets to claim the ‘world’s richest shipwreck’? (nationalgeographic.com)
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