The Morning Call--Is this yield curve inversion different?

The Morning Call

 

6/28/23

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Tuesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stocks-soar-strong-data-batters-bonds-bullion-sparks-hawkish-shift-rate-hike-odds

 

            The stock market isn’t as calm as it seems.

            https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-stock-market-isnt-as-calm-as-it-seems-3713180c

 

            Key market price ratios suggest the risk-on trade persists.

            https://www.capitalspectator.com/key-market-price-ratios-still-suggest-risk-on-bias-persists/

 

Bull trap or bull market?

Bull Trap Or A Bull Market? (realinvestmentadvice.com)

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

  Weekly mortgage applications were up 3.0% while purchase applications were up 2.8%.

                       

   Month to date retail chain store sales were much weaker than in the prior week.

 

 The April Case Shiller home price index was up 1.7% versus expectations   of +1.5%.

  https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2023/06/27/s-p-case-shiller-home-price-index-continued-gains-in-april

 

  May new home sales were up 12.2% versus predictions of -1.7%.

  https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2023/06/27/new-home-sales-surge-fastest-pace-over-year

 

  June consumer confidence came in at 109.7 versus estimates of 104.0.

 

  The June Richmond Fed manufacturing index was -7 versus consensus of   -10.

                           https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2023/06/27/richmond-fed-manufacturing-activity-relatively-flat-june

 

                         International

                      

   June German consumer confidence was reported at -25.4 versus   projections of -23.0.

 

                        Other

 

The Fed

 

  Markets are pricing in rate cuts too soon.

  https://www.cnbc.com/2023/06/27/imf-gopinath-central-banks-will-have-to-hold-rates-high-for-much-longer-.html

 

Inflation

 

  Inflation is proving persistent in the eurozone.

  https://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/27/business/christine-lagarde-inflation-central-banks.html

 

            Recession

 

              What recession?

              https://ritholtz.com/2023/06/what-recession/

 

              Is this yield curve inversion different?

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/treasury-yield-curves-inversion-different

 

              This analyst warns recession is coming this year.

              https://www.cnbc.com/2023/06/27/hsbc-global-economies-are-out-of-sync-2024-will-be-a-year-of-contraction.html

 

            The Banking System

 

  Banks will suffer 2008-type losses if inflation isn’t controlled.

  https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/banking-crisis-2008-recession-bank-failures-financial-crash-bis-2023-6

 

              Banks face increased scrutiny in the upcoming stress test.

              https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-06-27/banks-face-growing-capital-scrutiny-with-stress-tests-up-first?sref=loFkkPMQ

 

    Bottom line.

 

            Correction?

            https://alhambrapartners.com/2023/06/25/weekly-market-pulse-correction/

 

            The bull market is just getting started.

            https://www.wsj.com/articles/this-bull-market-is-just-getting-started-traders-bet-bd9fd930

 

            Are the ‘magnificent seven’ too expensive now?

            https://www.morningstar.com/markets/markets-brief-magnificent-seven-stocks-have-driven-rally-are-they-too-expensive-now

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

What I am reading today

 

           

What happened to the bodies when the Titanic submersible imploded?

https://townhall.com/tipsheet/mattvespa/2023/06/26/what-happened-to-the-bodies-of-those-killed-in-the-titanic-submersible-implosion-n2625013

 

What happened in Russia?

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/escobar-russias-coup-gate-putin-wins-all-counts

 

            Quote of the day.

            https://cafehayek.com/2023/06/bonus-quotation-of-the-day-947.html

 

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