The Morning Call--If the economy is so strong, how come tax receipts are down?

The Morning Call

 

6/16/23

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Thursday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bonds-stocks-bullion-bounce-market-calls-powells-hawkish-bluff

 

            Extreme sentiment.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/extreme-sentiment-vs-spx

 

            Matching the 1999 mania.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/bigger-1999-mania

 

            The Market uptrend (bull market?) is one year old.

            https://allstarcharts.com/bull-market-turns-1-year-old/

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

May industrial production fell 0.2% versus forecasts of +0.1%; capacity utilization was 79.6 versus 79.7.

 

                        International

 

                          May EU CPI was reported at 0.0%, in line.

 

                        Other

 

                          Update on big four economic indicators.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2023/06/15/industrial-production-fell-may-big-four-indicators

 

            The Fed

 

              The problem with continuing to raise rates.

              https://www.ft.com/content/dd4c0e82-cfbe-4698-8dde-a77be339d7bd

           

            Inflation

 

              Inflation is under control.

              http://scottgrannis.blogspot.com/2023/06/inflation-is-under-control.html

               

              Core inflation is showing signs of weakening.

              https://www.capitalspectator.com/will-sticky-core-pce-inflation-ease-in-months-ahead/

 

              Maybe not.

  https://finance.yahoo.com/news/the-us-is-now-facing-a-third-inflation-wave-economist-explains-075029389.html?guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly9uZXdzLmdvb2dsZS5jb20v&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAM2qngv8oPB41SfDxs14Yz7AtT0ckfDeZN3LkTWZLxgCVm3IBbWV-4ajEvVWo2He1poxAtZUDP2c3gjOv-gWRoSl9diIhq7mLVhpOaDAQg0bAAJxnGarZVmIrH64LnbHdU9uBvcjvj5kZ15Dx2ps3iXIedKXPYqAFui8fjUnSHaz

 

            Recession

 

              If the economy is so strong how come tax receipts are down?

              https://issuesinsights.com/2023/06/14/if-bidens-economic-plan-is-working-why-are-tax-revenues-plunging/

               

  Resumption of student loan repayments will reduce consumer spending $15.8  billion a month.

  https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/restart-student-loan-payments-slash-household-spending-158-billion-every-month

 

  Regional banks scramble to unload commercial real estate loans.

  https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/regional-banks-scramble-unload-commercial-real-estate-loans-fearing-new-crisis

 

I have pointed out that Europe has entered a recession.  China is also having growth issues.

  https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-cuts-rates-to-prop-up-flagging-recovery-6fe3ec72?mod=hp_lead_pos6&utm_campaign=What%20I%20Am%20Reading&utm_medium=email&_hsmi=262611720&_hsenc=p2ANqtz--SiBtRVffWPfcuaMUKSYtRTzCy5anRh_ZOYW2Y1w7iWzffQD94yb5W68pMNyDb0pZjM2Z57iw6KzH3OM_C0raZEHhVUg&utm_content=262611720&utm_source=hs_email

 

 

     Bottom line

 

Reviving the value trade.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/central-banks-hold-key-revive-value-trade

 

            Five common portfolio management mistakes.

            https://www.morningstar.com/portfolios/are-you-making-these-5-common-portfolio-mistakes

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

Williams-Sonoma (NYSE:WSM) declares $0.90/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.

 

What I am reading today

 

            Quote of the day.

            https://cafehayek.com/2023/06/quotation-of-the-day-4297.html

 

            The God particle.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/technology/god-particle

 

 

 

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