The Morning Call---Growing signs of recession

The Morning Call

 

6/23/23

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

Thursday in the charts.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/black-gold-bullion-battered-banks-breakdown-big-tech-bid

 

Here is a bullish technical take on the Market.  The analyst gives four reasons why  this time is different including (1) improving liquidity and financial conditions---but M2 is declining, those student loans now need to be paid and the commercial real estate market is on the edge of a cliff, (2) sentiment and positioning---except I have linked to numerous articles over the past two weeks observing just the opposite.  This guy may be correct; but his case is much weaker than he contends.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/ghosts-2000-and-2007-market-tops-are-absent-today

 

For example.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/jpmorgan-delta-one-team-warns-technical-pause-meltup-squeeze-sentiment-nears-record-high

 

            Short interest remains high.

            https://finance.yahoo.com/news/short-bets-us-stocks-hit-165225418.html

 

            Giving up on recession---just in time.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/giving-recessionjust-time

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

                          May existing home sales were up 0.2%versus consensus of down 0.5%.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2023/06/22/existing-home-sales-inch-up-may

 

                          The May leading economic indicators were down 0.7%, in line.

   https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2023/06/22/leading-economic-index-conference-board-declines-further-recession-signal-continues

 

  The June Kansas City Fed manufacturing index came in at -10 versus   projections of -1.

                           https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2023/06/22/kansas-city-fed-manufacturing-activity-declined-further-in-june

                                                    

                        International

 

May UK retail sales were up 0.3% versus estimates of -0.2%; ex fuel, they were +0.1% versus -0.3%: June consumer confidence was -24 versus -26; the June flash manufacturing PMI was 46.2 versus 46.8; the flash services PMI was 53.7 versus 54.8; the flash composite PMI was 52.8 versus 53.6.

 

May Japanese CPI was 0.0% versus predictions of +0.5%; the June flash manufacturing PMI was 49.8 versus 50.0; the flash services PMI was 54.2 versus 56.2; the flash composite PMI was 52.3 versus 54.0.

 

The June German flash manufacturing PMI was 41.0 versus forecasts of 43.5; the flash services PMI was 54.1 versus 56.2; the flash composite PMI was 50.8 versus 53.5.

 

The June EU flash consumer confidence index was reported at -16.1 versus  expectations of -17.0; the June flash manufacturing PMI was 43.6 versus 44.8; the flash services PMI was 52.4 versus 54.5; the flash composite PMI was 50.3 versus 52.5.

 

                        Other

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              Economic freedom is declining in the US.

              https://reason.com/2023/06/21/economic-freedom-is-declining-in-the-u-s/

 

            Inflation

 

              US supply chains are recovering.

              https://www.apricitas.io/p/us-supply-chains-are-recovering

 

            Recession

 

              Signs of a recession (must read).

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/signs-signs-everywhere-signs-no-recession-yet

 

              The commercial real estate dominos are falling.

               https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/distressed-cre-properties-top-64-billion-full-blown-trouble-ahead

 

              German recession will be worse than expected.

  https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/german-recession-will-be-sharper-than-expected-ifo-2023-06-21/?utm_campaign=What%20I%20Am%20Reading&utm_medium=email&_hsmi=263566446&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-_M1GTOmQTUus8LUQJWa4u7V_PDiyXADpFUAWtF-NFhCfVuGLc7mbXj9tYhOoP0ZPZwceLqcYbrXADKz9xOHfpMSNvSVw&utm_content=263566446&utm_source=hs_email

 

              European business confidence in China falls to record low.

  https://www.wsj.com/articles/confidence-in-china-at-record-low-european-business-lobby-poll-shows-13dc7bd1?mod=economy_lead_pos2&utm_campaign=What%20I%20Am%20Reading&utm_medium=email&_hsmi=263566446&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-9EwKmFOmoOFNPYaFVGcCIMO9-grzWiuSDzWowy5m83Ty86b6zFHQwTTu0lpu_YU8nih7oLe6lK5YC97iNPQfCJAjJkHA&utm_content=263566446&utm_source=hs_email

 

 

     Bottom line

 

            Analysts keep raising their earnings estimates.

            https://www.axios.com/2023/06/22/sp-500-us-stocks-earnings-outlook

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

Kroger (NYSE:KR) declares $0.29/share quarterly dividend, 11.5% increase from prior dividend of $0.26.

 

AbbVie (NYSE:ABBV) declares $1.48/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.

 

What I am reading today

 

           

 

 

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