The Morning Call
6/23/23
The
Market
Technical
Thursday in the
charts.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/black-gold-bullion-battered-banks-breakdown-big-tech-bid
Here is a bullish
technical take on the Market. The
analyst gives four reasons why this time
is different including (1) improving liquidity and financial conditions---but
M2 is declining, those student loans now need to be paid and the commercial real
estate market is on the edge of a cliff, (2) sentiment and positioning---except
I have linked to numerous articles over the past two weeks observing just the
opposite. This guy may be correct; but
his case is much weaker than he contends.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/ghosts-2000-and-2007-market-tops-are-absent-today
For example.
Short interest remains
high.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/short-bets-us-stocks-hit-165225418.html
Giving up on
recession---just in time.
https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/giving-recessionjust-time
Fundamental
Headlines
The
Economy
US
May existing home sales were up 0.2%versus
consensus of down 0.5%.
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2023/06/22/existing-home-sales-inch-up-may
The May leading economic indicators were down
0.7%, in line.
The June Kansas City Fed manufacturing index
came in at -10 versus projections of
-1.
International
May UK retail
sales were up 0.3% versus estimates of -0.2%; ex fuel, they were +0.1% versus
-0.3%: June consumer confidence was -24 versus -26; the June flash
manufacturing PMI was 46.2 versus 46.8; the flash services PMI was 53.7 versus
54.8; the flash composite PMI was 52.8 versus 53.6.
May Japanese CPI
was 0.0% versus predictions of +0.5%; the June flash manufacturing PMI was 49.8
versus 50.0; the flash services PMI was 54.2 versus 56.2; the flash composite
PMI was 52.3 versus 54.0.
The June German
flash manufacturing PMI was 41.0 versus forecasts of 43.5; the flash services
PMI was 54.1 versus 56.2; the flash composite PMI was 50.8 versus 53.5.
The June EU flash
consumer confidence index was reported at -16.1 versus expectations of -17.0; the June flash manufacturing
PMI was 43.6 versus 44.8; the flash services PMI was 52.4 versus 54.5; the
flash composite PMI was 50.3 versus 52.5.
Other
Fiscal
Policy
Economic freedom
is declining in the US.
https://reason.com/2023/06/21/economic-freedom-is-declining-in-the-u-s/
Inflation
US supply chains are recovering.
https://www.apricitas.io/p/us-supply-chains-are-recovering
Recession
Signs of a recession (must read).
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/signs-signs-everywhere-signs-no-recession-yet
The commercial real estate dominos are
falling.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/distressed-cre-properties-top-64-billion-full-blown-trouble-ahead
German recession will be worse than expected.
European business confidence in China falls to
record low.
Bottom line
Analysts keep
raising their earnings estimates.
https://www.axios.com/2023/06/22/sp-500-us-stocks-earnings-outlook
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
Kroger (NYSE:KR) declares $0.29/share quarterly dividend, 11.5% increase from prior
dividend of $0.26.
AbbVie (NYSE:ABBV) declares $1.48/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.
What
I am reading today
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