The Morning Call--More pressure on the banking system

The Morning Call

 

6/8/23

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

Wednesday in the charts.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/big-tech-bonds-bullion-battered-billionaire-druckenmiller-warns-more-shoes-drop

 

Bears throwing in the towel.

https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/massively-bullish-bulls-and-evaporating-bears

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

 Weekly initial jobless claims totaled 261,000 versus expectations of 235,000. 

 

  April trade balance was -$74.6 billion versus forecasts of -$75.2 billion.

                          https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2023/06/trade-deficit-increased-to-746-billion.html

 

                        International

 

Q1 Japanese final GDP growth was +0.7% versus consensus of +0.5%; Q1 private consumption was +0.5% versus +0.6%; Q1 capital expenditures were +1.4% versus +1.3%.

 

Q1 EU 3^rd estimate of GDP growth was +1.0% versus predictions of +1.2%.

 

                        Other

 

            The Fed

 

              Bank of Canada hikes official rate.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bank-canada-ends-pause-unexpected-rate-hike-475-22-year-high

 

              Quote of the day.

              https://cafehayek.com/2023/06/bonus-quotation-of-the-day-941.html

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              The Treasury’s cash pile already building.

  https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-06-06/us-cash-pile-leaps-by-most-since-tax-day-after-limit-suspension?srnd=markets-vp&utm_campaign=What%20I%20Am%20Reading&utm_medium=email&_hsmi=261485519&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-8a7k8PZ_1CllY31RL1yD7s-_DAg0nVsfG4OHIocWp4h1rDFyMXQw1MKjENCUT72wNDPsrN1279RIonwb5TrZC28olg9w&utm_content=261485519&utm_source=hs_email&sref=loFkkPMQ#xj4y7vzkg

 

              Which will put pressure on the banking system.

                https://www.ft.com/content/9bc73cea-e736-42f1-8a8f-6fc85945b641

 

             Inflation

 

                  Wholesale used car prices fell in May

                  https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2023/06/wholesale-used-car-prices-decreased-in.html

 

            Recession

 

              Unemployment claims as an indicator of recession.

              https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2023/06/07/unemployment-labor-force-business-cycle

 

              A ‘non-recession’ recession?

  https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-06-06/apollo-s-rowan-sees-non-recession-recession-as-rate-hikes-bite?srnd=markets-vp&utm_campaign=What%20I%20Am%20Reading&utm_medium=email&_hsmi=261485519&_hsenc=p2ANqtz--ksFozMeUHxkjAkDHe6mNxi3QpKcl0ViROZDNXSwwT6awp0XJI_uDn6Lf69l8qC53M3dDr3a2tEbEd7mwbhARzxY9rBA&utm_content=261485519&utm_source=hs_email&sref=loFkkPMQ#xj4y7vzkg

 

              Another world organization weighs in on the global economic outlook.

  https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-06-07/world-economy-is-entering-a-weak-inflation-plagued-recovery?srnd=premium&leadSource=uverify%20wall&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

              $1.5 trillion in interest only real estate debt coming due over next three years.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/landlords-face-15-trillion-bill-interest-only-commercial-mortgages

 

 April consumer credit debt at $23 billion versus projections of $22 billion.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/credit-card-debt-keep-surging-even-interest-rates-hit-record-high

 

                Geopolitics

 

              US munitions so low, we couldn’t defend Taiwan.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/us-munitions-stockpile-too-low-defend-war-over-taiwan

 

     Bottom line

 

            Is the bear market over?

            https://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/05/business/stocks-bull-market.html

 

            How are new bulls born?

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2023/06/07/markets-funds-index-bulls-richard-bernstein

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

General Dynamics (NYSE:GD) declares $1.32/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.

 

What I am reading today

 

           

 

 

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