The Morning Call---Parabolic usually ends in tears

 

The Morning Call

 

6/27/23

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

Monday in the charts.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/value-dramatically-outperforms-growth-bonds-bitcoin-slide

 

Beware of massive month end pension fund rebalancing selling.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/one-top-20-our-data-set-banks-warn-massive-month-end-pension-rebalance-selling-week

 

Time to hedge rate risk.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/seize-moment-inflation-calm-hedge-rate-risk

 

Parabolic usually ends in tears.

https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/parabolic-usually-ends-tears

 

This argument for a higher Market is almost exactly the same as other posted articles that argue for a lower Market.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/this-bull-market-is-just-getting-started-traders-bet-bd9fd930?mod=hp_lead_pos1&utm_campaign=What%20I%20Am%20Reading&utm_medium=email&_hsmi=263986392&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-9tNxRkQny781sc8Nfcwza0upi_2PJdVw-uab0SPr5vRvAKj_eRGfK984GKNXf7RCDkKLo3Fgs8-u2A6OPckWXkDwkvYg&utm_content=263986392&utm_source=hs_email

                       

                        A strong first half usually means a strong second half.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-06-25/where-stock-market-is-headed-after-wild-first-half-five-charts?srnd=premium&leadSource=uverify%20wall&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

                          May building permits rose 5.6% versus estimates of +5.2%.

 

May durable goods orders were up 1.7% versus projections of -1.0%; ex transportation, they were up 0.6% versus -1.0%.

                           

The June Dallas Fed manufacturing index came in at -23.2 versus consensus of -26.5.              

     https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2023/06/26/dallas-fed-manufacturing-business-conditions-remain-negative-fourteenth-straight-month

 

                        International

 

                        Other

 

                          Update on four high frequency indicators.

                          https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2023/06/update-on-four-high-frequency-indicators.html

 

                          BIS warns global economy at critical juncture.

                          https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bis-warns-world-economy-critical-090517941.html

                       

                          The misery index is falling fast.

                          https://www.axios.com/2023/06/26/misery-index-falling-fast

 

     Recession

 

              Corporate bankruptcies are surging.

              https://www.cnbc.com/2023/06/24/high-interest-rates-economic-uncertainty-boost-corporate-defaults.html

 

  Private commercial real estate---the next time bomb.

  https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/private-commercial-real-estate-how-and-when-markets-next-time-bomb-goes

 

              China’s economic gloom worsens.

              https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-06-26/china-s-soft-spending-data-signals-more-warning-signs-for-growth?srnd=premium&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

    Bottom line

 

            Beware speculating in AI.

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2023/06/26/technology-income-a-i-stock

 

Morgan Stanley warns, again.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-06-26/morgan-stanley-s-wilson-says-stock-risks-have-rarely-been-higher-ljcjlbkk?srnd=premium&leadSource=uverify%20wall&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

 

What I am reading today

 

            The sounds of invisible worlds.

            https://www.noemamag.com/the-sounds-of-invisible-worlds/

 

            Quote of the day.

            https://cafehayek.com/2023/06/quotation-of-the-day-4308.html

 

 

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