The Morning Call---More tightening to come

 

The Morning Call

 

6/30/23

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Thursday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/rate-hike-odds-spike-after-strong-gdp-bonds-big-tech-battered

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

                           

                            May pending home sales were down 2.7% versus estimates of -0.5%.

                            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2023/06/29/pending-home-sales-fall-third-straight-month

                                                       

May personal income rose 0.4% versus expectations of +0.3%; May personal spending was up 0.1% versus +0.2%.

 

The May PCE price index was 0.1% versus consensus of +0.2%; the core PCE price index was +0.3%, in line.

 

                        International

                           

                            Final Q1 UK GDP growth was +0.1%, in line.

 

The May Japanese unemployment rate was 2.6%, in line; May preliminary industrial production fell 1.6% versus -1.0%; May YoY housing start were up 3.5% versus -2.2%; May YoY construction orders were up 4.2% versus +7.0%; June CPI was 3.1% versus 3.2% core CPI was 3.2% versus 3.3%.

 

May German retail sales were up 0.4% versus projections of 0.0%; the June unemployment rate was 5.7% versus 5.6%.

 

The May EU unemployment rate was 6.5%, in line; the May flash CPI was +0.3%, also in line.

 

The June Chinese manufacturing PMI was 49.0, in line; the nonmanufacturing PMI was 53.2 versus 53.0; the composite PMI was 52.3 versus 52.0.

 

                        Other

 

            The Fed

 

              Powell leaves open the possibility of rate hikes at consecutive meetings.

  https://www.cnbc.com/2023/06/28/powell-say-more-restriction-is-coming-including-possibility-of-hikes-at-consecutive-meetings.html?utm_campaign=What%20I%20Am%20Reading&utm_medium=email&_hsmi=264344851&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-9ZSQo6P6snxWqxyTQqChJKGmdq2R5Nux52QKj0AE1qYZ7XxLP_FviIcsT_VOGQNlwO6CdNNfU2tyg1_KhZbxl-c3_KKA&utm_content=264344851&utm_source=hs_email

 

 

              M2 update---no reason to worry.

              http://scottgrannis.blogspot.com/2023/06/m2-update-no-reason-to-worry.html

 

              The Bank of England forced into overtightening.

              https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2023/06/29/bank-of-england-markets-inflation-bond

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

Paychex press release (NASDAQ:PAYX): Q4 Non-GAAP EPS of $0.97 in-line.

Revenue of $1.23B (+7.9% Y/Y) beats by $10M.

 

What I am reading today

 

            The fall of Meghan and Harry.

https://www.thefp.com/p/the-fall-of-meghan-and-harry-inc?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=260347&post_id=131770941&isFreemail=true&utm_medium=email

 

 

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