The Morning Call---No consensus on either recession or inflation

 

The Morning Call

 

6/7/23

 

The Market

         

    Technical

                

            Tuesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/massive-short-squeeze-sends-small-caps-soaring-bitcoin-bounces-back

 

            More concern about breadth.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/this-rally-is-all-about-a-few-star-stocksand-some-investors-are-worried-b64382e2?mod=hp_lead_pos5&utm_campaign=What%20I%20Am%20Reading&utm_medium=email&_hsmi=261327897&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-9CbrWY25QbVnxgq0sCgt25adK2pZHKud7WNyQZfndJ8cCEAiwLBdd02-VizsyKDwwV-uq3GykssLekP-Y5afLJFXVsGQ&utm_content=261327897&utm_source=hs_email

 

            NASDAQ positioning the most extended ever.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/nasdaq-positioning-most-extended-ever-point-where-profit-taking-historically-triggered

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

Weekly mortgage applications fell 1.4% while purchase applications were down 1.7%.

 

                        International

 

The April Japanese leading economic indicators came in at 97.6 versus consensus of 98.2.

 

April German industrial production rose 0.3% versus predictions of +0.6%.

 

The May Chinese trade balance was $65.8 billion versus estimates of $92.0 billion.

 

                        Other

 

            Inflation

 

This article proclaims home prices are up:

https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2023/06/corelogic-house-prices-up-20-yoy-in.html

 

This article states that ‘new home’ prices are down. 

https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2023/06/falling-new-home-prices-boost.html

 

Of course, both could be true, but it doesn’t help with the current economic confusion.

 

              From my favorite optimist.

              http://scottgrannis.blogspot.com/2023/06/inflation-and-spread-charts-updated.html

 

              Not quite so optimistic.

              https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2023/06/06/core-pce-inflation-not-coming-down

 

              Australian central bank hikes rates 25 basis points.

              https://www.cnbc.com/2023/06/06/australias-central-bank-hikes-rates-by-25-basis-points-defies-expectations.html

 

            Recession

 

              Latest nowcasts indicate no recession.

              https://www.capitalspectator.com/us-economic-growth-on-track-to-persist-in-q2-gdp-data/

 

              All seems well.

              https://alhambrapartners.com/2023/06/04/weekly-market-pulse-signal-to-noise-ratio/

 

              Counterpoint.

  https://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/06/business/economy/world-bank-projections.html?utm_campaign=What%20I%20Am%20Reading&utm_medium=email&_hsmi=261327897&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-8iPhyyXgREhpl9BOVvTMQPwfsix8TlMfJUbcg98ruwH8X6R1EpUB_-Kr3o_8DEJvnvW7VLQn6OZyl8-fMZzezknjiZIg&utm_content=261327897&utm_source=hs_email

 

              Recession talk rages---‘talk’ being the operative word.

              https://finance.yahoo.com/news/recession-talk-rages-on-despite-robust-jobs-market-191308453.html

 

  Midwest drought impacts corn crop.

  https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/us-corn-crop-deteriorates-after-midwest-hit-worst-drought-decades

 

            The coronavirus

 

              Lockdowns were a failed policy.

              https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2023/06/lockdowns-a-policy-disaster.php

 

    Bottom Line

                     

            Update on Buffett indicator.

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2023/06/06/buffett-valuation-indicator-may-2023-update

 

            Why emerging markets could finally shine.

            https://www.morningstar.com/markets/why-emerging-markets-stocks-could-finally-shine

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

What I am reading today

 

Wine tasting is junk science.

https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2013/jun/23/wine-tasting-junk-science-analysis

           

                        How Mt, Everest became a huge (and dangerous) business.

            https://huddleup.substack.com/p/how-mount-everest-became-a-huge-

 

Visit Investing for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home) to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber Service.